Operation Silent Strait

Scenario Name: Operation Silent Strait

Time and Date: October 12, 1990, 04:00:00 (Zulu)

Friendly Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Algeria
Bases of Operation:

Naval Base: Mers El Kébir, Algeria (35.7333° N, 0.7000° W)

Order of Battle:

Naval Assets:

Rais Hadj Mubarek (012) [Project 877EKM Kilo-class Submarine]

Loadout:

8x 53-65KE WH Anti-Ship Torpedoes 1
4x TEST-71ME Anti-Submarine Torpedoes 2
12x SA-N-8 Gremlin [9M36] Surface-to-Air Missiles 3
20x Generic Acoustic Decoys 4

Home Base: Mers El Kébir

Adversarial Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Spain
Bases of Operation:

Naval Base: Rota Naval Base, Spain (36.6344° N, 6.3533° W)
Naval Base: Cartagena Naval Base, Spain (37.5950° N, 0.9861° W)

Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):

Naval Assets:

1x Santa Maria-class Frigate, F81 Santa Maria: A modern Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigate leading an ASW task group. (Approximate starting location: 36.5° N, 3.0° W)
2x Descubierta-class Corvettes: Screening the frigate.
1x SH-60B Seahawk LAMPS III Helicopter: Embarked on the F81 Santa Maria, equipped for anti-submarine warfare.

Aircraft:

P-3B Orion MPA: Flying from Rota Naval Base, conducting maritime patrols over the Alboran Sea.

Mission & Objectives:

Geopolitical Situation:
A territorial dispute has flared up between Algeria and Spain over economic exclusion zones in the Alboran Sea. In a show of force, the Spanish Navy has dispatched a modern anti-submarine warfare (ASW) task group, led by the new frigate Santa Maria, to conduct exercises near the disputed waters. The Algerian government views this as an act of intimidation and has tasked its premier naval asset, the new Kilo-class submarine Rais Hadj Mubarek, to respond covertly. The mission is to demonstrate that the Spanish surface fleet cannot operate with impunity in Algeria's maritime backyard.
Friendly Mission:
You are the commander of the Rais Hadj Mubarek. Your mission is to locate the Spanish ASW task group operating in the Alboran Sea. Leveraging the quietness of your Kilo-class submarine and its advanced Shark Gill sonar suite, you must covertly trail the Spanish force, remaining undetected. Your primary objective is to get within torpedo range of the high-value unit, the frigate Santa Maria, record a full fire-control solution, and then withdraw without ever being detected.
Success Criteria:

Primary Objective: Maintain a passive sonar track on the F81 Santa Maria for at least 60 minutes.
Secondary Objective: Achieve a full torpedo firing solution on the F81 Santa Maria.
Constraint: You must not be detected by the Spanish task group. Any active sonar detection or being visually spotted by their maritime patrol aircraft or helicopter constitutes a mission failure.
Constraint: Do not launch any weapons. This is a "proof of capability" mission, not an act of war.

Operation Silent Strait: Probability Assessment

Scenario Overview

Mission: The Algerian Kilo-class submarine Rais Hadj Mubarek must covertly trail the Spanish ASW task group in the Alboran Sea, maintain a passive sonar track on the F81 Santa Maria for at least 60 minutes, achieve a full torpedo firing solution, and withdraw undetected.
Adversary: Spanish ASW group (Santa Maria-class frigate, two Descubierta-class corvettes, SH-60B Seahawk helicopter, and P-3B Orion MPA).

Key Threats and Mission Factors

1. Kilo-Class Submarine Stealth

The Project 877EKM Kilo-class is renowned for its quietness, earning the nickname "Black Hole" for its difficulty to detect, especially at low speeds and in littoral waters1 2 3.
Anechoic tiles and advanced sonar (Shark Gill suite) provide significant stealth advantages, particularly against hull-mounted sonar and passive towed arrays1 4.
The Kilo is optimized for coastal operations, making it well-suited for the shallow, noisy waters of the Alboran Sea3.

2. Spanish ASW Capabilities

Santa Maria-class Frigate: Equipped with SQS-56 hull sonar, SQR-19(V) towed array, and Mk 46 torpedoes. The ship can deploy an SH-60B Seahawk helicopter for extended ASW reach5 6 7.
Descubierta-class Corvettes: Provide additional hull sonar and ASW torpedo coverage.
SH-60B Seahawk: Can deploy sonobuoys, use dipping sonar, and launch torpedoes, greatly increasing the task group's detection envelope8.
P-3B Orion MPA: Conducts wide-area patrols, deploying sonobuoys and using MAD (magnetic anomaly detection) for submarine search9.

3. Environmental and Tactical Factors

The Alboran Sea is relatively shallow and acoustically complex, which can both help and hinder submarine stealth.
The Kilo's ability to operate at low speed and depth, combined with careful use of thermal layers, can reduce detection risk.
The Spanish task group, however, is specifically configured for ASW exercises, with high alertness and coordinated air-surface search patterns.

Probability Breakdown

Mission Phase / Objective	Probability (%)
Achieve initial undetected approach to task group	80
Maintain passive sonar track for 60+ minutes	70
Achieve full torpedo firing solution	65
Avoid all detection (active sonar, visual, MPA/helo)	60

Combined Full Mission Success

Probability of achieving all objectives (track for 60+ min, firing solution, undetected withdrawal):

0.80×0.70×0.65×0.60≈0.220.80 \times 0.70 \times 0.65 \times 0.60 \approx 0.220.80×0.70×0.65×0.60≈0.22 (~22%)

Partial Success

Probability of tracking the Santa Maria and achieving a firing solution, but with brief detection or forced early withdrawal:
~40%

Failure

Probability of being detected before achieving a firing solution, or being forced to break contact early:
~38%

Summary Table

Outcome Description	Probability (%)
Full Success (all objectives, undetected)	22
Partial Success (track/firing solution, but brief detection)	40
Failure (detected before solution, or forced to break off)	38

Key Points

Most likely outcome: The Kilo-class submarine can approach and track the Spanish task group, but the risk of detection by coordinated ASW assets (especially the SH-60B and P-3B Orion) is significant, particularly if the task group is actively searching and deploying sonobuoys.
Greatest risks:

Active dipping sonar from the SH-60B helicopter.
Sonobuoy fields laid by the P-3B Orion.
Aggressive use of towed array sonar by the Santa Maria.

Best practices for success:

Maintain minimum speed and depth to reduce noise.
Exploit thermal layers and seabed contours for concealment.
Avoid predictable approaches and minimize periscope or mast exposure.

In summary:

Odds of full mission success: ~22%
Odds of partial success: ~40%
Odds of failure: ~38%

Operation Silent Strait is a challenging, high-stakes covert tracking mission, with the main threats being modern, multi-layered ASW assets and the inherent difficulty of remaining undetected in a focused ASW exercise environment1 2 5 6.

The only light in the attack center of the Rais Hadj Mubarek came from the soft, emerald glow of the sonar displays. The air was cool and still, thick with the scent of ozone from the electronics and the faint, metallic tang of recycled air. Here, sixty meters beneath the choppy surface of the Alboran Sea, the world was reduced to sound. And Commander Farid Bouali was listening.

It was 04:00 Zulu on October 12, 1990. A territorial dispute over economic zones had flared, and the Spanish Navy had sent a message: a modern anti-submarine warfare task group, led by the new American-built frigate F81 Santa Maria, was conducting exercises on his nation's doorstep. The Algerian government's response was a whisper, not a shout. It was Farid's submarine, a new Project 877EKM Kilo-class, one of the quietest diesel-electric boats ever built. The mission, Operation Silent Strait, was to be a demonstration of a different kind of power. He was to find the Spanish fleet, prove he could sink its heart, and vanish without ever being known.

The odds were a cold knot in his stomach. The Spanish had a formidable screen: the Santa Maria with its powerful hull sonar and towed array, two ASW corvettes, a P-3B Orion maritime patrol aircraft sowing the sea with sonobuoys, and an SH-60B Seahawk helicopter that could dip its own active sonar anywhere it pleased. The mission analysis gave them a meager 22% chance of full, undetected success. The most likely outcome, at 40%, was a partial success marred by a brief detection—an outcome that, in this deadly game, was as good as failure.

"Anything, hydrophone?" Farid murmured, his voice a low rumble.

"Just the usual merchants, Commander," the operator replied, his headphones clamped tight. "And the sea itself. But they are out here. The P-3 passed overhead twenty minutes ago."

Farid nodded. For hours, they had crept eastward from Mers El Kébir at a painstaking four knots, running on silent electric motors. His boat, nicknamed the "Black Hole" by NATO for its ability to absorb sound, was a ghost. But even a ghost could be caught in the right net.

"Commander, I have it," the sonarman's voice was suddenly sharp, electric. "Faint blade noise... three vessels... bearing zero-two-zero. It matches the profile of the task group."

Farid felt the familiar surge of adrenaline, cold and sharp. "Slow to three knots. Bring us beneath the thermal layer. Let's get closer."

He moved his submarine like a shadow, using a layer of colder, denser water to mask his acoustic signature. On the plot, the three Spanish ships moved in a coordinated search pattern. He focused on the lead signature, the Santa Maria. For the next hour, the world shrank to the lines on the sonar screen and the rhythmic beat of the frigate's propellers in the headphones. The first objective was complete: he had held a passive track for sixty minutes.

Now came the true test.

"Up periscope, ten seconds only. I want a visual."

With a low hiss, the attack periscope rose. Farid gripped the handles, his eye pressed to the rubber cup. The night was dark, but he could see them—the sharp, predatory silhouettes of the warships, three miles distant, utterly oblivious. "Down periscope."

"Maneuvering to firing position," Farid ordered.

The crew in the attack center moved with quiet, practiced efficiency. The target's course, speed, and range were fed into the fire-control computer.

"Torpedo room reports tubes one and two are ready," the weapons officer stated.

"Solution is set, Commander," the fire-control technician confirmed. "We have a 95 percent probability of kill on the Santa Maria."

Farid stared at the green firing light. A single button push and two 53-65KE anti-ship torpedoes would be streaking towards the unsuspecting frigate. But that was not his mission. He had the proof. He had the recording. The secondary objective was met.

Suddenly, the hydrophone operator tore one side of his headphones off. "Helicopter! I hear a helicopter approaching! Dipping sonar in the water! It's close!"

The SH-60B, a spider descending on a silken thread, was hunting right over their position. An active sonar ping, sharp and piercing, echoed through the hull. It was the sound of impending death.

"Emergency deep! Deploy decoy, aft!" Farid commanded.

A generic acoustic decoy was launched from a tube, emitting noise to mimic a submarine. The Rais Hadj Mubarek angled down sharply, its anechoic-tiled hull absorbing the frantic sonar pulses from the helicopter above. For heart-stopping minutes, the pings chased the decoy as Farid slipped his boat deeper into the concealing abyss.

He watched the plot. The helicopter, its sonar finding nothing but the fading noise of the decoy, eventually gave up, rejoining the fleet. They had been close, terrifyingly close to failing. The most dangerous threat had been met and, through a combination of skill, technology, and luck, defeated.

"Slow to three knots," Farid said, his voice regaining its calm. "Take us out of the area, due south."

As the Rais Hadj Mubarek slipped away into the silent strait, Farid Bouali allowed himself a moment of grim satisfaction. He had looked into the heart of a modern NATO task force, placed his finger on its throat, and withdrawn without leaving a single ripple. The Spanish would sail on, confident in their power, never knowing that a ghost from the Algerian coast had just proven their impunity was an illusion.

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