Operation Dragon's Bridge

Scenario Name: Operation Dragon's Bridge

Time and Date: August 14, 1969, 01:00:00 (Zulu)

Friendly Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Soviet Union
Bases of Operation:

Airbase: Vozdvizhenka Air Base, Primorsky Krai, Soviet Union (43.9103° N, 131.9189° E)

Order of Battle:

Aircraft:

2x 3MN-1 'Bison-B' Bombers

Loadout (per aircraft): 6x FAB-3000M-46 GPB 1
Home Base: Vozdvizhenka Air Base

Adversarial Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: People's Republic of China
Bases of Operation:

Airbase: Harbin Airbase, China (45.7231° N, 126.6417° E)

Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):

Land-Based Threats:

Target: Harbin-Binbei Railway Bridge over the Songhua River (45.7981° N, 126.6119° E)
Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS):

S-75 Dvina (SA-2 Guideline) SAM Site: At least two batteries providing air defense for the city of Harbin and the bridge. (Estimated locations: 45.85° N, 126.65° E and 45.75° N, 126.70° E)
100mm KS-19 Anti-Aircraft Guns: Several batteries providing point defense of the bridge itself.

Early Warning Radars:

P-12 (Spoon Rest) Radar: Providing early warning for the SAM sites.

Aircraft:

Shenyang J-6 (MiG-19) Interceptors: Multiple squadrons based at Harbin Airbase are on high alert to defend the airspace.

Mission & Objectives:

Geopolitical Situation:
The Sino-Soviet border conflict has escalated dramatically. Following bloody clashes on Zhenbao (Damansky) Island, both nations are on the brink of all-out war. Soviet intelligence indicates that China is moving significant armored divisions north towards the border via the Binbei railway line. The railway bridge over the Songhua River at Harbin is the single most critical chokepoint on this supply route. The Soviet High Command has authorized a high-risk conventional strike to sever this artery, hoping to halt the Chinese military buildup before it can threaten the Soviet Far East. The immense destructive power of the FAB-3000 bomb is deemed necessary to ensure the complete destruction of the heavily-constructed bridge.
Friendly Mission:
You are to command a two-ship flight of 3MN-1 'Bison-B' bombers on a deep-penetration, nighttime strike against the Harbin-Binbei Railway Bridge. The mission will follow a Hi-Hi-Hi profile, with a 3000 nm strike radius, cruising at 36,000 ft to avoid the bulk of Chinese air defenses. 2 Your objective is to deliver your payload of heavy FAB-3000M-46 bombs to demolish the bridge, making it impassable for enemy reinforcements.
Success Criteria:

Primary Objective: Destroy the Harbin-Binbei Railway Bridge (Coordinates: 45.7981° N, 126.6119° E).
Secondary Objective: Avoid being shot down by Chinese interceptors or SAMs.
Constraint: Both aircraft must attempt to return to Soviet airspace after the attack.
Constraint: The attack must be carried out at night to maximize stealth and surprise.

Operation Dragon's Bridge: Probability Assessment

Scenario Overview

Mission: Two Soviet 3MN-1 'Bison-B' bombers conduct a high-altitude, nighttime strike on the Harbin-Binbei Railway Bridge, aiming to destroy the bridge and return both aircraft to Soviet airspace, while avoiding Chinese interceptors and SAMs.
Adversary: Chinese IADS with at least two S-75 Dvina (SA-2) SAM batteries, 100mm KS-19 AAA, P-12 early warning radar, and multiple J-6 (MiG-19) interceptor squadrons on high alert.

Key Threats and Mission Factors

1. Early Detection and Interception

P-12 (Spoon Rest) radar provides long-range early warning, making undetected approach unlikely even at night.
S-75 Dvina (SA-2) SAMs are highly effective against high-altitude bombers, with a proven record of downing U-2s and B-52s at altitudes up to 20 km1 2.
J-6 (MiG-19) interceptors are fast, well-armed, and capable of night operations, though their radar and GCI limitations at night reduce their effectiveness compared to daytime3 4.

2. SAM and AAA Threats

S-75 Dvina batteries can engage targets at 36,000 ft with a high probability of kill, especially against non-maneuvering bombers1 2.
100mm KS-19 AAA is less effective at bomber cruise altitude but poses a threat if bombers descend for accuracy or during egress.

3. Bombing Effectiveness

FAB-3000M-46 bombs are extremely powerful, with a blast radius of several hundred meters and proven effectiveness against large infrastructure targets like bridges5 6 7.
Accuracy: High-altitude, unguided bombing at night reduces precision, but the large number and size of bombs increases the chance of at least one direct or near-direct hit, sufficient to drop a span or render the bridge impassable8 7.

4. Bomber Survivability

Night operations reduce visual detection and complicate interceptor targeting, but do not negate radar-guided SAMs or GCI-directed interceptors.
Defensive guns and ECM on the Bison-B provide limited protection against modern SAMs and interceptors9.

Probability Breakdown

Mission Phase / Objective	Probability (%)
Penetrate to target area with both bombers	60
Achieve destruction of the bridge (≥1 direct/near hit)	55
Avoid loss of both bombers to SAMs/interceptors	60
Avoid direct engagement with J-6 interceptors	65
Both bombers return to Soviet airspace	50

Combined Full Mission Success

Probability of achieving all objectives (bridge destroyed, both bombers return, no shoot-down):

0.60×0.55×0.60×0.65×0.50≈0.0640.60 \times 0.55 \times 0.60 \times 0.65 \times 0.50 \approx 0.0640.60×0.55×0.60×0.65×0.50≈0.064 (~6%)

Partial Success

Probability of destroying the bridge and returning at least one bomber, or destroying the bridge but suffering one loss:
~25%

Failure

Probability of failing to destroy the bridge, losing both bombers, or suffering heavy losses:
~69%

Summary Table

Outcome Description	Probability (%)
Full Success (bridge destroyed, both bombers return)	6
Partial Success (bridge destroyed, one bomber lost)	25
Failure (bridge survives, both bombers lost, or major loss)	69

Key Points

Most likely outcome: The bomber force is detected early, faces S-75 launches and possible J-6 interception, and may suffer losses, but has a fair chance of reaching the target and inflicting significant damage on the bridge.
Greatest risks: Early detection, effective S-75 engagement, and the challenge of precision bombing at night with unguided munitions.
Best practices for success:

Maintain strict formation and electronic discipline.
Time the approach to exploit any gaps in interceptor coverage.
Prioritize accurate bomb delivery and rapid egress.

In summary:

Odds of full mission success: ~6%
Odds of partial success: ~25%
Odds of failure: ~69%

Operation Dragon's Bridge is a high-risk, moderate-reward strike, with the main threats being robust Chinese air defenses and the inherent difficulty of achieving overwhelming destruction with conventional bombs in a heavily defended environment1 2 7.

The air at Vozdvizhenka Air Base in the Primorsky Krai had the electric hum of a storm about to break. It was August 14, 1969, and the storm was war. Major Dimitri Orlov watched as the last of the six FAB-3000M-46 bombs was loaded into the belly of his 3MN-1 'Bison-B' bomber, callsign Zmey-1. Each bomb was a three-ton monster, a conventional weapon with near-apocalyptic power, and they were his tools to sever the spine of a dragon.

The Sino-Soviet border had bled for months. The clashes on Damansky Island had festered into a near-total war footing. Now, Chinese armored divisions were rolling north on the Binbei railway line, a steel artery pumping troops and tanks towards the Soviet Far East. The bridge over the Songhua River at Harbin was that artery's heart, and Dimitri's mission, Operation Dragon's Bridge, was to rip it out.

The briefing had been a funeral dirge spoken in the language of probabilities. The flight profile was a high-altitude run at 36,000 feet, straight into a dense nest of Chinese air defenses. At least two S-75 Dvina SAM batteries—the infamous SA-2s that had humbled American U-2s—were waiting. So were squadrons of Shenyang J-6 interceptors. The final, chilling assessment gave them a 6% chance of full success. The most likely outcome, at 69%, was failure: both bombers lost, the bridge untouched.

"A 6% chance, Comrade Major," his co-pilot, Leonid, had whispered, staring at the projection screen. "They are not asking us to fly a mission. They are asking us to be a statistic."

Now, climbing into the cockpit of Zmey-1, Dimitri pushed the thought aside. He and his wingman in Zmey-2 were not statistics. They were the fist of the Soviet Union.

For hours, they flew south, two silver specters in the stratosphere. The world below was a dark, sleeping giant. The only reality was the hum of the engines, the glow of the instruments, and the steady breathing of the crew over the intercom.

The calm shattered precisely when expected. "Contact," the electronic warfare officer announced, his voice tight. "P-12 radar. They see us."

The giant was awake. On the radar display, Dimitri could see the tell-tale signs of interceptors scrambling from Harbin. But the immediate threat came from the ground.

"SAM launch! Multiple launches, bearing one-niner-zero!"

Dimitri’s blood ran cold. He shoved the yoke forward, throwing the heavy bomber into a shallow dive to gain speed, the airframe groaning in protest. Far below, fiery lances ascended, climbing towards them with terrifying speed.

A brilliant flash blossomed off their port wing as an SA-2 detonated. The shockwave slammed into them, tossing the huge aircraft like a leaf. Alarms shrieked.

"Status!" Dimitri roared.

"Zmey-1 is green! Minor shrapnel, but we are flying!"

A strained voice came from his wingman. "Zmey-2 is hit! Starboard engines are on fire! We are losing altitude, but we are holding course!"

"Hold course, Zmey-2," Dimitri ordered, his heart a cold knot in his chest. "We press the attack."

The J-6 interceptors were on them now, a swarm of angry hornets. Their cannons stitched lines of tracer fire across the night sky, thankfully rendered inaccurate by the bombers' high altitude and the darkness. The Bison's tail guns spat back, a defiant but ultimately futile gesture.

Through the chaos, Dimitri saw the target. The Songhua River was a silver ribbon in the moonlight, and crossing it was the thin, black line of the Harbin-Binbei bridge. It looked impossibly small, impossibly fragile from seven miles up.

"On my mark," Dimitri said, his eyes locked on the bombsight. "Steady... steady..."

He heard Leonid's ragged breathing beside him. He saw the J-6s circling below, waiting for them to descend into the flak-filled skies.

"Bombs away!"

The bomber leaped upwards, shedding eighteen tons of ordnance in a single, catastrophic shrug. A moment later, he heard the call from his crippled wingman. "Bombs away!"

Twelve FAB-3000s, a total of 36 tons of high explosive, began their silent, gravity-fueled plunge. Dimitri banked the bomber hard, turning for home as he watched the result of their desperate gamble.

The first bombs struck the riverbank, creating immense geysers of water and mud. Then, a series of titanic, brilliant flashes directly on the bridge itself. The massive steel structure seemed to lift from its foundations, twisting into a grotesque shape before a huge central span collapsed into the dark water below. The dragon's spine was broken.

A cheer went up in the cockpit, but it died in their throats as they saw Zmey-2, its fire now uncontrollable, peel away from the formation.

"We are not going to make it, Comrade Major," the pilot's voice came over the radio, strangely calm. "Tell my wife... For the Motherland."

Dimitri watched as his wingman's bomber descended, a falling star that disappeared into the vast darkness of Manchuria.

The flight back to Vozdvizhenka was long and silent. They had succeeded. They had destroyed the bridge. But they had paid the price predicted by the analysts. It wasn't the 6% miracle. It was the 25% partial success. A victory that felt, in the lonely quiet of the cockpit, exactly like a defeat.

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