Operation Mediterranean Shield

Scenario Name: Operation Mediterranean Shield

Time and Date: September 5, 2022, 14:00:00 (Zulu)

Friendly Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Italy
Bases of Operation:

Naval Base: Taranto Naval Base, Italy (40.4800° N, 17.2133° E)
Satellite Ground Station: Fucino Space Centre, Italy (41.9786° N, 13.5994° E)

Order of Battle:

Space Assets:

1x COSMO-SkyMed GEN 2 Satellite (CSG-1)

Loadout: Generic SAR/MTI radar. 11
Orbit: Actively providing radar surveillance over the Central Mediterranean. 2222

Naval Assets (Player Controlled):

Bergamini-class Frigate (FREMM), ITS Carlo Bergamini (F 590)

Loadout: Standard armament including 76mm and 127mm cannons, Aster 15 SAMs.
Embarked Aircraft: 1x SH-90A helicopter equipped for surface search and transport of boarding teams.
Home Base: Taranto Naval Base (currently on patrol).
Current Location: Central Mediterranean (35.500° N, 17.500° E)

Adversarial Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Non-State Armed Groups (NSAG) - Arms Smugglers
Bases of Operation:

Mobile Base: Converted "Tramp" Freighter acting as a mothership.

Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):

Naval Assets:

1x Unidentified Freighter (MV "Odyssey"): A 120m-long commercial vessel moving suspiciously slow and not responding to hails. Suspected of smuggling heavy weaponry. (Location detected by satellite: 34.800° N, 18.200° E)
Ground-Based Threats: None at sea.
Naval, Aircraft, and Land-Based Equipment: The freighter is suspected to be carrying small arms and potentially MANPADS, defended by a small crew of armed smugglers.

Mission & Objectives:

Geopolitical Situation:
Amidst ongoing instability in North Africa, intelligence sources indicate a significant flow of illicit arms from the Eastern Mediterranean towards Libya. An international task force is monitoring the shipping lanes. The Italian government has tasked its advanced COSMO-SkyMed Second Generation (CSG-1) satellite to scan the area for suspicious vessels. A recent pass has flagged a "dark" vessel—a freighter not broadcasting AIS and following an unusual route—loitering in international waters.
Friendly Mission:
The ITS Carlo Bergamini, currently on patrol, has been redirected to investigate the contact provided by CSG-1. Your mission is to use the satellite's initial SAR data to close in on the target vessel, the MV Odyssey. You will first launch your SH-90A helicopter to conduct a long-range visual identification (VID) and confirm the vessel's identity and status. Once confirmed as the suspect vessel, you are to close in with the frigate and execute a maritime interdiction operation (MIO). Your objective is to board the vessel, neutralize any resistance, and secure the ship and its illicit cargo.
Success Criteria:

Primary Objective: Successfully board and secure the MV Odyssey.
Secondary Objective: Use the SH-90A to perform a VID on the target before the frigate closes to within 5 nm.
Constraint: Use non-lethal force where possible to secure the vessel. Lethal force is authorized only if your boarding team is fired upon.
Constraint: Prevent the smugglers from scuttling the ship.

Operation Mediterranean Shield: Probability Assessment

Scenario Overview

Mission: ITS Carlo Bergamini (FREMM) must use COSMO-SkyMed GEN 2 satellite data to locate and visually identify the MV Odyssey, then conduct a maritime interdiction operation (MIO) to board and secure the vessel, neutralize resistance, and prevent scuttling, using non-lethal force unless fired upon.
Adversary: A 120m freighter suspected of smuggling arms, defended by a small, armed crew (potentially with MANPADS).

Key Factors Affecting Mission Outcome

1. Satellite Detection and Target Localization

COSMO-SkyMed GEN 2 provides high-resolution, all-weather, day/night SAR imagery, enabling rapid and accurate detection of non-cooperative vessels in the Mediterranean. The system’s multi-mode radar can pinpoint a vessel’s location to within meters, even if it is not broadcasting AIS or is attempting to evade detection1 2.
Probability of initial detection and accurate localization: ~98%

2. Helicopter Visual Identification (VID)

The SH-90A helicopter, equipped for surface search and boarding team transport, can conduct a long-range VID before the frigate closes to within 5 nm. Modern naval helicopters routinely perform such operations, and the risk to the helicopter is low if the approach is cautious and outside small arms range.
Probability of successful VID before 5 nm: ~95%

3. Approach and Boarding Operation

Bergamini-class FREMM frigates are designed for maritime security and interdiction, with advanced sensors, fast boats, and a well-trained boarding team (often San Marco Marines)4. The ship’s embarked helicopter can insert the team quickly, and the frigate can provide overwatch with non-lethal and, if necessary, lethal force.
Probability of successful approach and boarding: ~90% (assuming standard procedures and no unexpected escalation)

4. Neutralizing Resistance and Securing the Vessel

Most smuggling crews are lightly armed and not trained for military resistance. However, the presence of small arms and possible MANPADS increases risk, especially if the crew is desperate or attempts to scuttle the ship.
Probability of neutralizing resistance and securing the vessel: ~80% (higher if the boarding is rapid and overwhelming)

5. Preventing Scuttling

Smugglers have, in some cases, attempted to scuttle or abandon ships to destroy evidence or avoid capture6 7 8. Rapid boarding and control of the engine room and bridge are critical. Modern boarding teams are trained to prioritize these areas.
Probability of preventing scuttling: ~75%

Probability Table

Mission Phase / Objective	Probability (%)
Satellite detection and localization	98
SH-90A successful VID before 5 nm	95
Successful approach and boarding	90
Neutralize resistance and secure vessel	80
Prevent scuttling	75

Combined Full Mission Success

Probability of achieving all objectives (VID, boarding, securing, no scuttling):

0.98×0.95×0.90×0.80×0.75≈0.500.98 \times 0.95 \times 0.90 \times 0.80 \times 0.75 \approx 0.500.98×0.95×0.90×0.80×0.75≈0.50 (~50%)

Partial Success

Probability of boarding and securing the vessel, but with minor resistance or brief scuttling attempt: ~35%

Failure

Probability of failing to board, losing the vessel to scuttling, or suffering significant resistance: ~15%

Summary Table

Outcome Description	Probability (%)
Full Success (all objectives, vessel secured, no scuttling)	50
Partial Success (vessel boarded, minor resistance/scuttling)	35
Failure (boarding fails, vessel scuttled, or major resistance)	15

Key Points

Most likely outcome: The Italian Navy successfully locates, identifies, and boards the MV Odyssey, neutralizing resistance and preventing scuttling, with a moderate risk of partial success due to possible crew actions.
Risks: The main risks are a sudden attempt by the smugglers to scuttle the ship or use of small arms/MANPADS against the boarding team or helicopter.
Best practices for success:

Use satellite data for precise localization and approach planning.
Employ the SH-90A for early VID and rapid insertion of the boarding team.
Prioritize securing the bridge and engine room to prevent scuttling.
Use overwhelming force and non-lethal options to minimize casualties and escalation.

In summary:

Odds of full mission success: ~50%
Odds of partial success: ~35%
Odds of failure: ~15%

Operation Mediterranean Shield is a moderate-risk, high-confidence maritime interdiction, leveraging advanced Italian naval and space-based assets to counter illicit arms smuggling in the Mediterranean1 5.

The bridge of the ITS Carlo Bergamini was an oasis of calm, air-conditioned coolness amidst the sweltering heat of the Central Mediterranean. From his command chair, Capitano di Fregata Marco Rensi watched the endless blue horizon. It was 14:00 Zulu on September 5, 2022, and for days, their patrol had been a routine of drills and endless ocean. That changed an hour ago.

The message had arrived via a secure satellite link, originating from the Fucino Space Centre. It was a single, high-resolution radar image from the COSMO-SkyMed Second Generation satellite, CSG-1. The image, sharp enough to pick out deck equipment, showed a 120-meter freighter, dead in the water, in a known smuggling corridor. It was not broadcasting an AIS signal. It was a ghost on the water, a ghost that intelligence believed was laden with heavy weapons bound for the chaos in Libya.

Operation Mediterranean Shield was now active. Rensi’s mission was clear: intercept, identify, and, if necessary, board and seize the vessel. The mission analysis gave them a 50% chance of a perfect outcome. A coin toss. But the 15% chance of failure—losing the vessel to scuttling or facing significant armed resistance—was a risk that weighed heavily.

"Launch the helicopter," Rensi ordered, his voice steady. "I want a VID before we get within five nautical miles. Let's not announce ourselves until we know exactly who we're dealing with."

The SH-90A helicopter lifted off the frigate's flight deck, its rotors beating a powerful rhythm against the sea air. It was a grey hawk sent to inspect the prey from a safe distance. On the bridge's main screen, Rensi watched the video feed from the helicopter's camera. The freighter, identifying itself as the MV Odyssey, grew from a fuzzy shape into a clear image. It was rust-streaked and rode low in the water, signs of a heavy cargo. Men could be seen on deck, watching the approaching helicopter with a mixture of curiosity and apprehension.

"The VID is positive, Capitano," the helicopter pilot reported. "It's the Odyssey. We see deckhands, but no visible weapons. They look nervous."

"Understood," Rensi replied. "Maintain your distance. Boarding team, stand by."

The Bergamini increased speed, its sleek hull cutting through the waves. The time for stealth was over. As the frigate closed the distance, Rensi’s plan was put into motion. The SH-90A descended, hovering over the freighter's stern, its downdraft whipping the sea into a frenzy. Simultaneously, two rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs) launched from the Bergamini, filled with commandos from the San Marco Marine Brigade, their faces grim and determined.

The helicopter fast-roped the first half of the boarding team onto the ship's bridge, while the RHIBs came alongside, their teams scaling the hull with practiced ease. The smugglers were caught completely by surprise, their resistance disorganized and brief. A few warning shots were fired into the air, but faced with the overwhelming and professional force of the Italian commandos, most of the crew surrendered immediately.

"Bridge secure!" came the call over the radio. "Engine room secure!"

The most critical phase was over. The risk of scuttling had been neutralized. But as the commandos began to search the cargo holds, they were met with resistance. A handful of die-hard smugglers opened fire with automatic rifles from behind a barricade of crates.

Rensi listened to the terse, disciplined radio traffic. The commandos didn't charge blindly. They used flashbangs and non-lethal force, cornering the remaining gunmen. A short, violent burst of gunfire, and then silence.

"All hostiles neutralized," the boarding team leader reported. "We have the vessel secured. You're not going to believe what's in these containers, Capitano."

Rensi allowed himself a slow, deep breath. The 50% chance of success had paid off. He looked at the tactical plot. The MV Odyssey was now a friendly icon, its illicit cargo of missiles and heavy machine guns under Italian control. The operation had been a testament to modern naval warfare—a silent eye in space, a swift arm on the sea, and the unwavering resolve of the men under his command. The Mediterranean Shield had held.

Search This Blog

Command: Modern Operations Scenario Creations