Operation Abkhazian Dash

Scenario Name: Operation Abkhazian Dash

Time and Date: August 9, 2008, 05:00:00 (Zulu)

Friendly Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Georgia
Bases of Operation:

Naval Base: Poti Naval Base, Georgia (42.1558° N, 41.6556° E)

Order of Battle:

Naval Assets:

Pr.106K LCU, Guria (001)

Loadout:

1x 23mm ZU-23-2 Cannon 11
Onboard Cargo: 120x Georgian Army Soldiers, 2x BMP-1 Infantry Fighting Vehicles. 2

Home Base: Poti Naval Base

Adversarial Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Russian Federation / Abkhazian Separatists
Bases of Operation:

Naval Base: Gudauta (Abkhazian-controlled port) (43.1017° N, 40.6200° E)

Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):

Naval Assets:

1x Stenka-class Patrol Boat (Project 205P): Conducting patrols off the coast of Abkhazia. (Approximate starting location: 42.85° N, 41.10° E)

Aircraft:

Su-25 'Frogfoot' Attack Aircraft: A flight is known to be operating from Gudauta Air Base, conducting strikes against Georgian forces.

Ground-Based Threats:

Abkhazian Separatist Forces: Coastal positions with machine guns and possible anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) near the objective beach.

Mission & Objectives:

Geopolitical Situation:
War has erupted between Georgia and the Russian Federation over South Ossetia. Russian forces, along with their Abkhaz separatist allies, are now advancing along the Black Sea coast, threatening to cut off Georgian forces. In a desperate move to bolster the defenses of a key coastal town, the Georgian command has ordered the LCU Guria to conduct a high-speed transit from Poti to deliver a company of soldiers and their armored vehicles.
Friendly Mission:
You are the commander of the LCU Guria. Your mission is to transport your embarked troops and BMPs from Poti and land them on the beach just south of the town of Ochamchire. You must navigate the coastline, using your Don-2 radar to keep track of any surface contacts, and be prepared to defend your vessel with its single ZU-23-2 cannon. 3333 This is a vital reinforcement mission where speed and avoiding direct combat are key to success.
Success Criteria:

Primary Objective: Successfully land all embarked troops and vehicles at the designated beachhead (Coordinates: 42.695° N, 41.470° E).
Secondary Objective: Avoid detection by the Russian Stenka-class patrol boat.
Constraint: The Guria must survive the mission.
Constraint: You must complete the landing before Russian air assets can be vectored to your location.

Operation Abkhazian Dash: Probability Assessment

Scenario Overview

Mission: The Georgian LCU Guria must transport 120 soldiers and 2 BMP-1s from Poti to a beach near Ochamchire, avoiding detection and engagement by Russian/Abkhazian naval, air, and coastal forces.
Key Threats: Russian Stenka-class patrol boat, Su-25 'Frogfoot' attack aircraft, Abkhazian coastal machine guns, and possible ATGMs.

Key Threats and Mission Factors

1. Detection and Interception by Stenka-class Patrol Boat

Stenka-class patrol boats are equipped with surface search radar (Pot Drum) and can detect large, slow-moving targets like an LCU at significant ranges (15–20+ nautical miles in good conditions)1 2.
The LCU Guria, with a maximum speed of ~12 knots, is much slower than the Stenka (34–38 knots)3 4.
If detected, the Stenka can rapidly close the distance and is armed with 30mm cannons and machine guns, easily outgunning the LCU’s single ZU-23-22.
Probability of avoiding detection/interception by Stenka: Low to moderate (~30%), depending on timing, route, and use of darkness or coastal cover.

2. Air Threat: Su-25 'Frogfoot' Attack Aircraft

Su-25s are optimized for ground attack and can carry rockets, bombs, and cannon pods, making them highly effective against unarmored or lightly armored vessels5 6.
The LCU is highly vulnerable to air attack, with little protection beyond its ZU-23-2.
If Russian air assets are vectored to the LCU’s location, survival odds drop sharply.
Probability of completing landing before air attack: Moderate (~40%), depending on speed, timing, and Russian air response.

3. Coastal Defenses: Machine Guns and ATGMs

Abkhazian separatist forces may have machine guns and ATGMs covering likely landing beaches.
The LCU and disembarking troops/BMPs are vulnerable during the final approach and unloading phase.
Probability of surviving coastal fire and landing all troops/vehicles: Moderate (~60%), assuming a rapid, surprise landing and minimal resistance.

4. LCU Survivability

LCUs are rugged but slow, with a large radar and visual signature, making them easy targets for both naval and air threats7 8 9.
Historical data suggests that LCUs in contested landings have very low survival times if engaged by modern weapons7 8.
Probability of LCU surviving the mission: Low to moderate (~35%).

Probability Table

Mission Phase / Objective	Probability (%)
Avoid detection/interception by Stenka-class patrol boat	30
Complete landing before Russian air assets arrive	40
Survive coastal defenses and land all troops/vehicles	60
LCU survives the mission	35

Combined Full Mission Success

Probability of achieving all objectives (landing all troops/vehicles, avoiding detection/interception, LCU survives, before air attack):

0.30×0.40×0.60×0.35≈0.0250.30 \times 0.40 \times 0.60 \times 0.35 \approx 0.0250.30×0.40×0.60×0.35≈0.025 (~2.5%)

Partial Success

Probability of landing some troops/vehicles but with LCU damaged or lost, or after detection/engagement:
~25%

Failure

Probability of failing to land, suffering heavy losses, or LCU destroyed/intercepted:
~72.5%

Summary Table

Outcome Description	Probability (%)
Full Success (all objectives, LCU survives, undetected)	2.5
Partial Success (some troops/vehicles landed, LCU lost/detected)	25
Failure (major losses, LCU destroyed/intercepted)	72.5

Key Points

Most likely outcome: The LCU is detected by the Stenka-class patrol boat or Russian air assets before completing the landing, resulting in engagement and likely loss of the vessel and/or embarked troops.
Greatest risks: Early detection by patrol boat radar, rapid air response by Su-25s, and vulnerability during the landing phase.
Best practices for success:

Maximize use of darkness, coastal cover, and speed.
Avoid predictable routes and minimize radio emissions.
Execute a rapid, surprise landing to reduce exposure time.

In summary:

Odds of full mission success: ~2.5%
Odds of partial success: ~25%
Odds of failure: ~72.5%

Operation Abkhazian Dash is an extremely high-risk mission, with the main threats being early detection by Russian/Abkhazian naval and air assets, and the inherent vulnerability of LCUs in contested littoral environments2 7 8.

The Black Sea was a churning, slate-grey expanse, indifferent to the war that had set its shores ablaze. On the bridge of the Georgian landing craft Guria, Kapitan Levan Makharadze felt the thrum of the overworked diesel engines through the steel deck plates. It was 05:00 Zulu on August 9, 2008, and his slow, ungainly ship was the most important vessel in the Georgian Navy, because it was the only one available.

His mission, Operation Abkhazian Dash, was an act of pure desperation. With Russian forces advancing down the coast, the Guria was to make a high-speed run from Poti to a small beach near Ochamchire. His cargo was a company of 120 soldiers and their two BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles—a lifeline for the town's beleaguered defenders. The problem was that the Guria's top speed was a lumbering twelve knots. The Russian Stenka-class patrol boat known to be in the area could do thirty-five.

The briefing had been a grim affair. An intelligence officer, his face pale in the flickering light of the command bunker, had laid out the odds. A 72.5% chance of failure. A 2.5% chance of full success. Levan wasn't a gambler, but he knew those were not odds; they were a death sentence.

"Keep your eyes on the Don-2," Levan said to his radar operator, a boy barely old enough to shave. "And pray it sees them before they see us."

For two hours, they hugged the coastline, a grey ghost against a grey shore. On the main deck, the soldiers sat in quiet, huddled groups, their faces grim. Levan felt the weight of every one of them. They were not cargo; they were his responsibility.

"Contact!" The radar operator’s voice was a sharp crack in the tense quiet. "Bearing three-four-zero. Fast mover, closing from the north. It's the Stenka."

Levan’s blood ran cold. The secondary objective—avoiding detection—had failed. The Russian patrol boat was a wolf, and he was a sheepdog guarding a flock, with only the single, twin-barreled 23mm ZU-23-2 cannon on his foredeck for teeth.

"Full speed ahead," Levan ordered, knowing it was futile. "Man the gun. Radio silence is broken. Inform command we have been intercepted."

The Stenka was on them in minutes, a sleek, menacing shape that sliced through the waves. It circled them like a shark, its 30mm cannon tracking their bridge. A light flashed from its mast. Heave to and prepare to be boarded.

"They are not firing," Levan’s executive officer breathed.

"Not yet," Levan replied. He had a choice: surrender his ship and the 120 men who were Georgia's last hope in the region, or make a run for it. It wasn't a choice at all.

"To hell with them," Levan growled into the ship's intercom. "We are making for the beach. Gunners, if they open fire, you return it."

He turned the Guria hard towards the shore, the old ship groaning in protest. The Stenka, its bluff called, opened up. The sharp thump-thump-thump of its cannon was followed by a series of explosions along the Guria's port side, tearing jagged holes in the hull. The ZU-23-2 spat back defiantly, its green tracers arcing across the water, a futile gesture against the better-armed warship.

"We're taking on water!" the engineer screamed over the radio. "The beach, Kapitan! It's our only chance!"

Through the smoke and the chaos, Levan saw it—a stretch of dark sand. He ignored the Russian boat, ignored the alarms blaring on his bridge, and aimed his dying ship at the shore. With a gut-wrenching screech of tortured metal, the Guria ran aground, its bow ramp slamming down onto the beach.

"Go! Go! For Georgia, go!" Levan roared.

The two BMPs roared to life, clattering down the ramp and onto the sand, their own cannons firing towards the tree line where Abkhazian machine guns had begun to open up. The Georgian soldiers poured out after them, running into the fight, a desperate, valiant charge.

Levan watched them go, a fierce, terrible pride swelling in his chest. He had delivered them. Not all of them would survive the landing, but some would. The town would be reinforced.

Then he heard it. A high-pitched, terrifying shriek that was not the sound of naval cannons. He looked up. Two Su-25 'Frogfoot' attack jets were diving on them, their wings heavy with rockets.

The Stenka ceased fire, pulling away to watch the kill. Levan knew his part in the war was over. He had failed to save his ship, but he had not failed his men. As the first Russian jet opened fire, its cannons turning his bridge into a shredding vortex of steel and fire, Le an’s last thought was of the soldiers on the beach, now fighting for their lives. It was not the 2.5% miracle, but the 25% partial success. A success paid for in blood and steel, on a lonely stretch of sand on the edge of the Black Sea.

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