Operation Arctic Predator

Scenario Name: Operation Arctic Predator

Time and Date: March 20, 2028, 14:00:00 (Zulu)

Friendly Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Russia
Bases of Operation:

Airbase: Severomorsk-3, Murmansk Oblast, Russia (68.8750° N, 33.7236° E)

Order of Battle:

Aircraft:

2x Su-57 Felon 1

Loadout (per aircraft): 4x R-77M (AA-12 Adder) BVR Missiles, 2x R-73 (AA-11 Archer) WVR Missiles, 1x Kh-31PD Anti-Radiation Missile.
Defensive Systems: Equipped with 101KS-O DIRCM for protection against infrared-guided missiles. 2222
Home Base: Severomorsk-3

Adversarial Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Norway / United States (NATO)
Bases of Operation:

Airbase: Evenes Air Station, Norway (68.4914° N, 16.6781° E)
Naval Task Force: Operating in the Barents Sea.

Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):

Naval Assets:

1x Arleigh Burke-class Destroyer (Flight IIA): Providing air defense for the task force. (Approximate starting location: 72.5° N, 25.0° E)
Threat Systems: RIM-162 Evolved SeaSparrow Missile (ESSM), RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM) - The RAM system poses a significant IR threat to incoming aircraft.

Aircraft:

4x F-35A Lightning II: Flying Combat Air Patrol (CAP) from Evenes Air Station.
Threat Systems: AIM-9X Sidewinder - These advanced IR-homing missiles are the primary threat the 101KS-O DIRCM is designed to counter.

Ground-Based Threats:

NASAMS III SAM Site: Providing air defense around Evenes Air Station. (68.4914° N, 16.6781° E)

Mission & Objectives:

Geopolitical Situation:
In a near-future scenario, heightened tensions over Arctic shipping lanes and resources have led to aggressive naval posturing by both Russia and NATO. A NATO surface action group, centered on a US destroyer, has entered the Barents Sea to assert freedom of navigation, a move Russia sees as a direct provocation. In response, the Russian Northern Fleet has sortied its most advanced air assets to "escort" the NATO force and demonstrate its regional air dominance.
Friendly Mission:
You are the flight lead of a two-ship element of Su-57 Felons. Your mission is to conduct a "sweep and escort" patrol. You are to locate the NATO naval task force, perform a low-altitude, high-speed pass to signal your presence, and sanitize the airspace of any hostile fighters. The primary threat will come from Norwegian F-35s on CAP, armed with AIM-9X missiles. Your survival during any close-range engagement will depend heavily on the effectiveness of your integrated defensive suite, particularly the 101KS-O DIRCM system to defeat incoming IR missiles.
Success Criteria:

Primary Objective: Successfully perform a high-speed pass within 10 nautical miles of the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer.
Secondary Objective: Shoot down any F-35A that displays hostile intent (achieving a weapon lock on your flight).
Constraint: Do not lose any of your Su-57 aircraft. The mission is intended to demonstrate superiority and survivability.
Constraint: Do not fire on the NATO naval vessels. Your rules of engagement are limited to hostile aircraft.

Operation Arctic Predator: Probability Assessment

Scenario Overview

Mission: Two Russian Su-57 Felons must perform a high-speed pass within 10 nm of a US Arleigh Burke-class destroyer in the Barents Sea, sanitize the airspace of any hostile F-35A Lightning IIs, and return with no losses.
Adversary: 4x F-35A Lightning II (CAP), Arleigh Burke-class destroyer (ESSM, RAM), NASAMS III SAM site, and advanced air defense systems.

Key Threats and Mission Factors

1. F-35A Lightning II (CAP)

BVR (Beyond Visual Range) Combat: The F-35A has a significant edge in sensor fusion, situational awareness, and stealth, making it likely to detect the Su-57s first and attempt a missile engagement before being detected themselves1 2 3.
WVR (Within Visual Range) Combat: The Su-57 is more maneuverable and equipped with thrust vectoring, giving it an advantage in a close dogfight. However, the F-35A's AIM-9X Sidewinder is a highly advanced IR missile with a high kill probability4 5.
Numbers: The Su-57s are outnumbered 2:1, increasing the risk of being flanked or overwhelmed.

2. Su-57 Defensive Systems

101KS-O DIRCM: This system is designed to defeat IR-guided missiles like the AIM-9X by jamming their seekers6 7. While DIRCMs are highly effective against older IR missiles, their effectiveness against the latest imaging infrared (IIR) seekers (like AIM-9X Block II/III) is not absolute. Open-source estimates suggest a best-case defeat rate of 60–75% against modern IIR threats, but real-world performance may be lower, especially against multiple simultaneous launches8 9.
Electronic Warfare: The Su-57's L402 Himalayas EW suite can degrade radar-guided missile performance, but the F-35's sensor fusion and networking remain superior2 10 3.

3. Arleigh Burke-class Destroyer Air Defenses

ESSM and RAM: The destroyer provides a layered air defense umbrella. ESSM is effective at medium range against high-speed, low-altitude targets, while RAM is a last-ditch, short-range IR-guided missile system11 12 1314. A low-altitude, high-speed pass within 10 nm will almost certainly trigger engagement by both systems.
Probability of Surviving a Pass: Modern warships are designed to defeat supersonic, low-flying threats. The probability of a single aircraft surviving a close pass through a fully alert Aegis/ESSM/RAM envelope is moderate for a stealthy, maneuverable jet, but the risk increases with each additional pass or if both Su-57s are targeted simultaneously.

4. NASAMS III SAM Site

Coverage: Provides additional medium-range air defense around Evenes Air Station, but is less relevant if the Su-57s avoid the airbase and focus on the naval task force.

Probability Breakdown

Mission Phase / Objective	Probability (%)
Survive F-35A BVR engagement (both Su-57s)	55
Survive F-35A WVR engagement (both Su-57s, DIRCM active)	60
Survive ESSM/RAM engagement during destroyer pass	65
Complete high-speed pass within 10 nm of destroyer	80
Shoot down hostile F-35A (if engaged)	40

Combined Full Mission Success

Probability of achieving all objectives (close pass, shoot down hostile F-35A if needed, no Su-57 losses):

0.55×0.60×0.65×0.80=0.170.55 \times 0.60 \times 0.65 \times 0.80 = 0.170.55×0.60×0.65×0.80=0.17 (~17%)

Partial Success

Probability of completing the pass but losing one Su-57 or failing to shoot down a hostile F-35A:
~35%

Failure

Probability of failing to complete the pass, losing both Su-57s, or being shot down by F-35s or ship defenses:
~48%

Summary Table

Outcome Description	Probability (%)
Full Success (all objectives, no Su-57 losses)	17
Partial Success (pass completed, but with one loss or no F-35A kill)	35
Failure (major losses, pass not completed, or both Su-57s lost)	48

Key Points

Most likely outcome: The Su-57s complete the high-speed pass but may lose one aircraft to F-35A or ship-based defenses, or fail to shoot down a hostile F-35A.
Greatest risks: Early detection and BVR engagement by F-35A, multiple simultaneous AIM-9X launches (which may overwhelm DIRCM), and dense shipboard air defenses during the close pass.
Best practices for success:

Maximize use of terrain masking and electronic warfare to delay detection.
Coordinate the pass to minimize exposure time within the destroyer's engagement envelope.
Engage F-35s only if they display hostile intent, using BVR missiles and leveraging the Su-57's maneuverability and DIRCM in WVR.

In summary:

Odds of full mission success: ~17%
Odds of partial success: ~35%
Odds of failure: ~48%

Operation Arctic Predator is a high-risk, high-visibility demonstration, with the main threats being advanced F-35A CAP and the formidable layered air defenses of a modern Arleigh Burke-class destroyer.

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The sky over the Kola Peninsula was a bruised purple, a perpetual twilight that clung to the frozen landscape. From the cockpit of his Su-57 Felon, callsign Berkut-1, Major Ivan Volkov watched the ground crews scurry away, their forms small against the immense, angular shape of his aircraft. It was March 20, 2028, and the Arctic was no longer a desolate wasteland; it was a chessboard, and he was the queen's knight.

The mission, Operation Arctic Predator, was a direct response to NATO's latest gambit. A US Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, a steel fortress of Aegis radar and missiles, had pushed deep into the Barents Sea, a deliberate provocation. Ivan and his wingman were to deliver Russia's reply. Their orders: locate the NATO force, perform a low-altitude, high-speed "fly-by" to show they could touch it at will, and sanitize the airspace of the F-35A Lightning IIs flying combat air patrol.

The briefing had been a cold bath of technological realities. The F-35s had superior stealth and situational awareness. They would likely see him first. His Su-57 had superior maneuverability and the 101KS-O DIRCM, a defensive laser system designed to blind the heat-seeking AIM-9X missiles the F-35s carried. It was a duel of philosophies: the invisible sniper versus the agile swordsman. The mission analysts gave them a 17% chance of a perfect outcome. The most likely scenario was partial success, a term that tasted of blood and broken parts.

"Ready, Berkut-2?" Ivan's voice was calm, a practiced mask over the adrenaline coursing through his veins.

"Ready, Commander," his wingman, a young, cocky pilot named Alexei, replied.

"Let's hunt," Ivan said.

The two Felons climbed into the thin, frigid air, their engines leaving clean, sharp trails in the twilight. They flew north, a pair of apex predators gliding over the pack ice. For an hour, they were ghosts, their advanced radars on passive, listening, sniffing the electromagnetic spectrum for their prey.

"Contact," Alexei's voice crackled. "Multiple airborne targets, bearing two-niner-zero. Four of them. It's the F-35s."

Almost simultaneously, a warning tone chirped in Ivan's helmet. "We're painted. They see us."

The duel had begun at a hundred kilometers. "They're launching!" Alexei yelled. "BVR! Missiles in the air!"

Ivan threw the Su-57 into a gut-wrenching turn, his L402 Himalayas ECM suite screaming into the void, trying to confuse the incoming radar-guided missiles. He watched the threat display, his life reduced to lines and symbols on a screen. One missile was defeated by the ECM. Another streaked past, losing its lock at the last moment. The F-35s had fired from stealth, a deadly, unseen volley.

"They're closing," Ivan said, leveling out. "Prepare for the merge. This is where we earn our pay."

The four F-35s, their stealth advantage negated at close range, became visible contacts. The fight devolved into a chaotic, three-dimensional knife fight. Ivan picked his target, the lead F-35, and engaged his thrust-vectoring nozzles. The Su-57 bucked and twisted, performing maneuvers that seemed to defy physics.

An alarm shrieked—a missile lock. An AIM-9X was off the rails, streaking towards him. This was the test.

"DIRCM active," the jet's automated voice announced.

Ivan felt more than saw the 101KS-O system engage. A turreted laser beam, invisible to the naked eye, lanced out from his aircraft, targeting the missile's seeker head. The incoming Sidewinder, its electronic eye blinded, suddenly went ballistic, veering harmlessly into the empty sky.

"Good effect! Good effect!" Ivan yelled, a surge of triumph washing over him. He rolled his Su-57 onto the tail of an F-35 and squeezed the trigger. His cannon spat a short, brutal burst of 30mm shells, and the American jet's wing disintegrated.

But they were outnumbered. "Commander, I'm hit!" Alexei screamed. "My port engine is out! I'm disengaging!"

Ivan saw Alexei's damaged Felon peel away, trailing smoke, pursued by one of the F-35s. Two others were turning on him. He had to complete the mission.

"I am proceeding to the primary," Ivan announced, diving for the deck.

He broke through the dogfight, leaving the F-35s behind, and thundered towards the sea. There it was: the Arleigh Burke, a grey behemoth on the white-capped water. He was at five hundred feet, doing over Mach 1.

The ship's defenses erupted. A flurry of RIM-162 ESSM missiles launched, and the ship's Phalanx CIWS began spitting a solid wall of tungsten. Ivan jinked violently, flares and chaff streaming behind him. An ESSM detonated off his starboard side, the shockwave slamming his aircraft. Alarms screamed, but he held his course, flashing past the destroyer's bridge at less than ten miles, a supersonic blur of Russian steel.

He had done it. The primary objective was complete.

He pulled his damaged aircraft into a steep climb, turning for home. He had completed the pass, but Alexei was damaged, and one of the F-35s had been downed at the cost of his wingman's near destruction. It was not the clean, decisive 17% victory. It was the bloody, chaotic 35% partial success. As he nursed his wounded predator back towards the frozen sanctuary of the Kola Peninsula, Ivan Volkov knew he had delivered a powerful message. But looking at the empty space in the sky where his wingman should have been, he was acutely aware of the price of a predator's pride.

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