Operation Cretan Hammer

 

Scenario Name: Operation Cretan Hammer

Time and Date: October 18, 1973, 23:00:00 (Zulu)

Friendly Forces:

• Primary Country/Coalition: Soviet Union

• Bases of Operation:

• Airbase: Gvardeyskoye Air Base, Crimean Oblast, Ukrainian SSR (45.1114° N, 33.9781° E)

• Order of Battle:

• Aircraft:

• 4x 3MN-1 'Bison-B' Bombers

• Loadout (per aircraft): 28x FAB-500M-54 GPB 1

• Home Base: Gvardeyskoye Air Base

Adversarial Forces:

• Primary Country/Coalition: Greece / United States (NATO)

• Bases of Operation:

• Airbase/Naval Base: Souda Bay Air Base & Naval Base, Crete, Greece (35.4950° N, 24.1350° E)

• Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):

• Land-Based Threats:

• Target: The naval piers, fuel depots, and aircraft parking aprons at the Souda Bay complex.

• Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS):

• Nike Hercules SAM Site: A Hellenic Air Force battery providing high-altitude defense for the Souda Bay complex. (Estimated location: 35.5200° N, 24.1800° E)

• Early Warning Radars:

• NATO NADGE Radar Site: Long-range surveillance radar on Mount Ziros, Crete, providing coverage over the Aegean Sea. (35.0886° N, 26.1111° E)

• Aircraft:

• F-4E Phantom II: A US Air Force squadron on deployment at Souda Bay Air Base for air defense of the naval assets.

Mission & Objectives:

• Geopolitical Situation:
  The Yom Kippur War is raging, and the US has initiated Operation Nickel Grass, a strategic airlift to resupply Israel. A critical node in this airlift is the US naval and air facility at Souda Bay, Crete. The Soviet Union, backing its Arab allies, is determined to interrupt this flow of supplies. With the US Sixth Fleet providing a powerful screen at sea, the Soviet Politburo has authorized a daring conventional air strike against the source. A flight of 'Bison-B' bombers will conduct a nighttime raid to crater the runways, destroy parked transport aircraft, and damage the port facilities at Souda Bay.

• Friendly Mission:
  You are to command a four-ship wave of 3MN-1 'Bison-B' bombers. Your mission is to execute a high-altitude bombing raid on the NATO facilities at Souda Bay. The mission will follow the specified Hi-Hi-Hi profile with a 3100 nm strike radius, cruising at 36,000 ft. 2 The objective is to use your combined payload of 112 FAB-500M-54 bombs to saturate the airfield aprons and naval pier area, inflicting maximum disruption on the American resupply effort.

• Success Criteria:

• Primary Objective: Destroy at least 50% of the aircraft parking aprons and pier facilities at Souda Bay (Coordinates: 35.4950° N, 24.1350° E).

• Secondary Objective: Avoid being intercepted by NATO F-4E Phantom IIs.

• Constraint: Do not deviate from the high-altitude strike profile. Descending into the engagement envelope of lower-level air defenses will likely result in mission failure.

• Constraint: At least two of the four bombers must return safely to Soviet-controlled airspace.

Operation Cretan Hammer: Probability Assessment

Scenario Overview

• Mission: Four Soviet 3MN-1 'Bison-B' bombers conduct a high-altitude, nighttime strike on Souda Bay, Crete, aiming to destroy at least 50% of the aircraft aprons and pier facilities, avoid interception by F-4E Phantom IIs, and return at least two bombers to Soviet airspace.
  
  

• Adversary: Hellenic Nike Hercules SAM site, NATO NADGE radar, and a US Air Force F-4E Phantom II squadron on alert.
  
  

Key Threats and Mission Factors

1. Early Detection and Interception

• NATO NADGE radar provides long-range coverage over the Aegean, ensuring the bomber formation is detected well before reaching Crete.
  
  

• F-4E Phantom II squadrons are highly capable, with rapid scramble and climb rates, and are expected to intercept any detected threat at high altitude.
  
  

• Probability of detection and intercept attempt: Very high (≈95%).
  
  

• Probability of successful interception (at least one bomber engaged): Moderate (≈50%), as the bombers are high, fast, and at night, but F-4Es are optimized for this role12.
  
  

2. SAM Threat: Nike Hercules

• Nike Hercules batteries are highly effective at high altitude, with a range of up to 75 miles and a high single-shot kill probability against non-maneuvering bombers345.
  
  

• Probability of at least one bomber being hit by SAMs: High (≈50–60% for a four-bomber formation), especially if the battery is on alert and the bombers are detected early345.
  
  

3. Bombing Effectiveness

• FAB-500M-54 bombs: A saturation attack with 112 bombs increases the likelihood of area destruction, but high-altitude, unguided bombing at night reduces precision.
  
  

• Probability of achieving ≥50% destruction of aprons and piers (if at least two bombers reach the release point): High (≈70%), given the area nature of the targets and the volume of ordnance.
  
  

4. Bomber Survivability

• Main risks: Nike Hercules SAMs and F-4E interceptors. Defensive guns are ineffective against supersonic, missile-armed fighters and SAMs.
  
  

• Probability at least two bombers return to Soviet airspace: Moderate (≈55%), considering cumulative risks from SAMs and interceptors67.
  
  

Probability Breakdown

Mission Phase / Objective	Probability (%)
Penetrate to target area with ≥2 bombers	60
Achieve ≥50% destruction of aprons/piers	70
Avoid interception by F-4E Phantom IIs	50
Avoid loss of more than two bombers	55

Combined Full Mission Success

• Probability of achieving all objectives (≥50% destruction, ≤2 bombers lost, no F-4E interception):
  
  

• 0.60×0.70×0.50×0.55≈0.120.60 \times 0.70 \times 0.50 \times 0.55 \approx 0.120.60×0.70×0.50×0.55≈0.12 (~12%)
  
  

Partial Success

• Probability of destroying the target but with higher losses or brief F-4E engagement:
  ~35%
  
  

Failure

• Probability of failing to destroy the target, losing more than two bombers, or suffering direct F-4E engagement:
  ~53%
  
  

Summary Table

Outcome Description	Probability (%)
Full Success (all objectives, ≤2 bombers lost, no F-4E engagement)	12
Partial Success (primary met, but with higher loss or F-4E engagement)	35
Failure (major losses, insufficient destruction, or direct engagement)	53

Key Points

• Most likely outcome: The bomber force is detected early, faces Nike Hercules SAM launches and possible F-4E interception, and may suffer losses, but has a fair chance of reaching the target and inflicting significant damage.
  
  

• Greatest risks: Early detection, effective Nike Hercules engagement, and the challenge of precision bombing at night with unguided munitions.
  
  

• Best practices for success:
  
  

• Maintain strict formation and electronic discipline.
  
  

• Time the approach to exploit any gaps in interceptor coverage.
  
  

• Prioritize accurate bomb delivery and rapid egress.
  
  

In summary:

• Odds of full mission success: ~12%
  
  

• Odds of partial success: ~35%
  
  

• Odds of failure: ~53%
  
  

Operation Cretan Hammer is a high-risk, moderate-reward strike, with the main threats being robust NATO air defenses and the inherent difficulty of achieving overwhelming destruction with conventional bombs in a heavily defended environment3451672.

1. https://theaviationist.com/2014/08/11/f-4-interceptions-explained/

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_F-4_Phantom_II

3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nike_Hercules

4. https://www.artillerymuseum.com/new-to-the-museum

5. https://ed-thelen.org/NIKE-English-version.pdf

6. https://theaviationgeekclub.com/the-story-of-the-low-level-flight-tactics-devised-to-allow-soviet-m-4-and-3m-bison-bombers-to-penetrate-nato-air-defence-system/amp/

7. https://theaviationgeekclub.com/the-story-of-the-low-level-flight-tactics-devised-to-allow-soviet-m-4-and-3m-bison-bombers-to-penetrate-nato-air-defence-system/

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10. https://www.jber.jb.mil/Services-Resources/Environmental/Nike/Missile/

11. https://theaviationist.com/2015/12/18/recce-planes-the-iaf-f-4-never-intercepted/

12. https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v10/d146

13. https://www.ghostsofthebattlefield.org/articles/wall-of-in-the-sky-the-untold-story-of-the-nike-nuclear-missile-shield

14. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/spy-planes-israeli-f-4-phantom-fighters-were-never-able-shoot-down-63921

15. https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2024/P7128.pdf

16. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surface-to-air_missile

17. https://www.reddit.com/r/MilitaryPorn/comments/1fdhcsa/us_air_force_f4c_phantom_intercepting_a_russian/

18. https://nikemissile.org/ColdWar/whatwehave/

19. https://www.historynet.com/mcdonnell-f-4-phantom-essential-aircraft-in-the-air-warfare-in-the-middle-east/

20. https://www.airvectors.net/avbison.html

21. https://www.sightraider.com/base-tuono-cold-war-surface-to-air-missiles-in-italy/

22. https://ww2aircraft.net/forum/threads/guided-anti-aircraft-missiles-possible.39214/latest

23. https://www.ausairpower.net/TE-LR-Penetrators.html

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26. https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1961-63v08/d112

27. https://www.airandspaceforces.com/article/1099stealth/

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29. https://oscarzero.wordpress.com/2023/03/20/nukes-in-the-backyard-a-brief-history-of-nike-missiles/

30. https://combatace.com/forums/topic/59874-fighter-performance-f-4-vs-mig-21/

31. https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/AUPress/Books/B_0028_WERRELL_ARCHIE_TO_SAM.pdf

32. https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1955-57v19/index

33. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/what-couldnt-f-4-phantom-do-180953944/

34. https://ia801900.us.archive.org/26/items/history-of-the-electro-optical-guided-missiles/Nike%20and%20BOMARC.pdf

The air in the briefing room at Gvardeyskoye Air Base was thick enough to taste—a foul cocktail of stale tobacco smoke, sweat, and dread. Colonel Dimitri Volkov stared at the projected map of the Aegean Sea, a red line slashing from the Crimea to the island of Crete. It was October 18, 1973, and the Yom Kippur War had set the world on a razor's edge.

The mission, codenamed "Cretan Hammer," was a direct, brutal response to America's Operation Nickel Grass. The U.S. was pouring weapons into Israel through a massive airlift, and the lynchpin of that operation was the sprawling naval and air facility at Souda Bay. Dimitri’s orders, straight from the Politburo, were to command a flight of four 3MN-1 'Bison-B' bombers and crush that lynchpin. He was to crater the runways, burn the fuel depots, and shatter the piers, severing the lifeline to Israel.

The flight profile was a classic high-altitude strike at 36,000 feet, but the defenses were modern and formidable. A powerful NATO radar on Mount Ziros would see them coming from hundreds of kilometers away. A squadron of American F-4E Phantom IIs was waiting at Souda Bay itself. And guarding the approaches was a battery of Hellenic Air Force Nike Hercules SAMs—long-range, high-altitude killers designed for exactly one purpose: to swat bombers like his from the sky.

The final slide of the briefing had been a cold splash of reality. A 12% chance of full success. A 53% probability of mission failure. The most likely outcome, at 35%, was "Partial Success"—a clinical term that meant trading steel and lives for a damaged target.

"A hammer is a crude weapon, Colonel," his young navigator had murmured before they walked to the aircraft. "It is meant to be broken, so long as it shatters the anvil."

Now, climbing through the cold darkness over the Black Sea, Dimitri felt the weight of that statement. He and his three other crews, callsigns Drozd-1 through 4, were the hammer.

For hours they flew in unnerving silence, four silver crosses against a canopy of brilliant, unblinking stars. The tension was a living thing in the cockpit.

"Contact," the electronic warfare officer announced, his voice flat and devoid of emotion. "NADGE radar on Ziros has us. The curtain is up."

The game had begun. From Crete to Athens, NATO command centers would be alive with their position, speed, and heading. The first challenge came sooner than expected.

"Bandits! Multiple contacts, scrambling from Souda Bay!" the EWO called out. "Phantoms."

Dimitri watched the radar scopes. The F-4s were clawing their way to altitude, their powerful engines pushing them through the thin air. The American pilots were aggressive, coming in close to probe the formation, their navigation lights like angry eyes in the dark. But at this altitude, at night, a missile lock was difficult. The Bisons' powerful ECM pods screamed into the ether, jamming and deceiving, while the bombers held their course, a testament to raw nerve. The Phantoms, unable to gain a clear advantage, fell back to shadow them, a promise of violence yet to come.

They had avoided direct engagement, but the primary threat was still ahead. As they crossed the coastline of Crete, the EWO’s voice became a sharp cry. "SAM launch! Nike launch detected! Multiple missiles inbound!"

"Evasive maneuvers! Flares and chaff! Full power!" Dimitri roared.

The four colossal bombers began a clumsy, weaving dance, their huge airframes groaning in protest. From the ground, fiery lances ascended, their rocket motors burning with an intensity that was visible even from seven miles up.

A brilliant flash detonated harmlessly between Drozd-1 and Drozd-2. But the second volley was more accurate.

"Drozd-4 is hit! We're hit!" The voice over the radio was a panicked scream before it was consumed by static.

Dimitri twisted in his seat, looking out the reinforced window. He saw his wingman's aircraft, its long wing sheared in half, tumbling end over end in a silent, horrifying cartwheel before a secondary explosion consumed it entirely. One down.

"Status report!" Dimitri barked.

"Drozd-2 reports shrapnel damage, hydraulics are leaking but holding!"

"Drozd-3 is clear!"

The mission constraint—return at least two bombers—was now on a knife's edge. There was no turning back. "Press the attack," Dimitri commanded, his voice cold as the space outside his cockpit.

They flew on through the lingering smoke trails. Below them now lay Souda Bay, a brilliant cluster of lights against the dark sea. Dimitri could clearly see the long naval piers, the sprawling aircraft aprons, and the dark, hulking shapes of C-141 transport planes parked wingtip to wingtip.

"Target acquired," the bombardier said, his face illuminated by the green glow of his scope. "On your mark, Colonel."

"Deliver the hammer," Dimitri ordered.

"Bombs away!" The call was repeated three times across the formation.

The bombers lurched upwards, suddenly lightened. From their bellies, more than 150 FAB-500 bombs began their long, whistling descent.

Dimitri banked the aircraft hard, turning back north as he watched the fruits of their desperate charge. The first bombs struck the main runway, followed by a rolling, thunderous carpet of destruction that engulfed the naval piers and the aircraft aprons. A massive fireball erupted from the fuel depot, turning night into day and silhouetting the fleeing transport planes that were now burning furiously.

The primary objective was complete. The American lifeline was, for now, severed.

The flight back to the Crimea was a long, grim affair, escorting the wounded Drozd-2. They landed at Gvardeyskoye to the sight of waiting ambulances. Three bombers had returned, one of them crippled. One was gone forever. It was a partial success, just as the analysts had predicted. The hammer had shattered the anvil, but it had returned cracked and broken. In the cold light of a new day, Dimitri Volkov knew he had won a great victory for the Soviet Union, but it felt indistinguishable from a profound and terrible loss.