Operation Jebel Storm

Scenario Name: Operation Jebel Storm

Time and Date: October 10, 1975, 08:00:00 (Zulu)

Friendly Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Oman
Bases of Operation:

Airbase: RAF Salalah, Dhofar Province, Oman (17.0386° N, 54.1008° E)

Order of Battle:

Aircraft:

2x Hunter FGA.73 1

Loadout (per aircraft): 2x 100 ImpG Drop Tank, 4x Matra SNEB 68mm Rocket Pods, 30mm ADEN Cannon ammunition. 22
Home Base: RAF Salalah

Adversarial Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Popular Front for the Liberation of Oman (PFLO) (Non-State Armed Group)
Bases of Operation:

Mobile Base: Scattered encampments and fortified caves in the Jebel Dhofar mountains.

Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):

Land-Based Assets and Personnel:

Rebel Encampment Alpha: A small logistics and command post hidden in a wadi. (Coordinates: 17.2500° N, 53.8500° E)
Rebel Encampment Bravo: A secondary position with a weapons cache. (Coordinates: 17.3100° N, 53.9100° E)
Ground-Based Threats:

ZPU-2 (14.5mm) Anti-Aircraft Gun: Suspected to be protecting Encampment Alpha.
DShK 12.7mm Heavy Machine Guns: Several positions scattered throughout the operational area.

Mission & Objectives:

Geopolitical Situation:
The Dhofar Rebellion is in its final, intense phase. The Sultan of Oman's Armed Forces (SOAF), with significant British and Iranian support, are pushing the communist-backed PFLO rebels deep into the Jebel Dhofar mountains. The Hawker Hunters of the SOAF are flying relentless ground attack missions to interdict rebel supply lines and destroy their mountain strongholds. Intelligence has identified several active rebel positions that need to be neutralized.
Friendly Mission:
You are the flight lead of a two-ship element of Hawker Hunters. Your mission is an armed reconnaissance sweep through the Jebel Dhofar. The 100 ImpG Drop Tanks will provide you with the necessary fuel for extended loiter time over the target area, allowing you to patiently search for and engage targets of opportunity. 3333 Your primary objectives are two identified rebel encampments. You are cleared to use your rockets and cannons to destroy any rebel positions, equipment, or personnel you locate.
Success Criteria:

Primary Objective: Destroy the command post at Rebel Encampment Alpha.
Secondary Objective: Destroy the weapons cache at Rebel Encampment Bravo.
Constraint: You must positively identify targets before engaging to avoid hitting civilian goat herds or friendly patrols.
Constraint: Use your extended loiter time to make multiple passes if necessary to ensure target destruction. The drop tanks are critical for mission success.

Operation Jebel Storm: Probability Assessment

Scenario Overview

Mission: Two Hawker Hunter FGA.73s from RAF Salalah must conduct an armed reconnaissance and strike against two PFLO rebel encampments in the Jebel Dhofar mountains, using rockets and cannons to destroy a command post (Alpha) and a weapons cache (Bravo).
Threats: ZPU-2 (14.5mm) anti-aircraft gun at Encampment Alpha, multiple DShK 12.7mm heavy machine guns scattered in the area.
Constraints: Positive target identification is required to avoid civilian/friendly casualties; extended loiter time allows for multiple attack passes.

Key Factors Affecting Mission Outcome

1. Hunter FGA.73 Ground Attack Effectiveness

The Hawker Hunter was a proven ground-attack platform, capable of delivering accurate rocket and cannon fire against soft and semi-hardened targets1 2 3.
In Oman, Hunters were used extensively and successfully for interdiction and close air support, often operating from austere airstrips and making repeated attack passes4 1 2.
The combination of SNEB rockets and 30mm ADEN cannons was highly effective against encampments, vehicles, and light fortifications2 3.

2. Threat from ZPU-2 and DShK Guns

The ZPU-2 (14.5mm) and DShK (12.7mm) were significant threats to low-flying aircraft, especially during attack runs and egress5 6 7.
These weapons were responsible for losses and damage to aircraft in similar conflicts, forcing pilots to use slant-range attacks, high-speed passes, and terrain masking to minimize exposure2 7.
The risk of being hit increased with each additional pass, but the extended loiter time allowed pilots to plan attacks from less predictable directions and altitudes2.

3. Target Identification and Collateral Risk

The requirement for positive identification before engagement, combined with the rugged terrain and presence of civilians and friendly patrols, increases the complexity and may require multiple passes or holding patterns2 8.
The risk of collateral damage is mitigated by the pilots' experience and the ability to loiter, but it cannot be eliminated entirely.

4. Historical Context and Operational Success

Air power was a decisive factor in the final phase of the Dhofar Rebellion, with SOAF Hunters playing a key role in destroying rebel strongholds and supply lines1 8.
Despite the threat from ground fire, the majority of Hunter missions were successful, with relatively few losses, especially when operating with good intelligence and support4 1 8.

Probability Breakdown

Mission Phase / Objective	Probability (%)
Locate and positively identify both encampments	90
Destroy command post at Encampment Alpha	75
Destroy weapons cache at Encampment Bravo	70
Avoid loss of an aircraft to ZPU-2/DShK fire	80
Avoid collateral damage (civilians/friendlies)	85

Combined Full Mission Success

Probability of achieving all objectives (both targets destroyed, no aircraft lost, no collateral damage):

0.90×0.75×0.70×0.80×0.85≈0.320.90 \times 0.75 \times 0.70 \times 0.80 \times 0.85 \approx 0.320.90×0.75×0.70×0.80×0.85≈0.32 (~32%)

Partial Success

Probability of destroying at least one target, with minor damage or a single aircraft loss:
~45%

Failure

Probability of failing to destroy either target, losing both aircraft, or causing significant collateral damage:
~23%

Summary Table

Outcome Description	Probability (%)
Full Success (all objectives, no loss/collateral)	32
Partial Success (one target destroyed, minor loss/damage)	45
Failure (major loss, no targets destroyed, or collateral)	23

Key Points

Most likely outcome: The Hunter flight successfully locates and destroys at least one encampment, with a moderate risk of aircraft damage or loss due to ground fire.
Greatest risks: Exposure to ZPU-2 and DShK fire during repeated attack passes, and the challenge of positive target identification in rugged terrain.
Best practices for success:

Use slant-range rocket attacks and high-speed passes to minimize exposure.
Employ extended loiter time to plan attacks from multiple directions and altitudes.
Prioritize target identification and avoid predictable attack patterns.

In summary:

Odds of full mission success: ~32%
Odds of partial success: ~45%
Odds of failure: ~23%

Operation Jebel Storm is a moderate-risk, high-payoff ground attack mission, with the main threats being concentrated ground fire and the challenge of achieving overwhelming destruction while minimizing collateral damage4 2 7 8.

The heat rising from the tarmac at RAF Salalah was a physical blow, a shimmering wall that distorted the rugged shapes of the two Hawker Hunters. Flight Lieutenant David "Shep" Shepherd settled into the familiar cockpit of his FGA.73, the worn leather and metal a second skin. It was October 10, 1975, and the Dhofar Rebellion was a festering wound on the flank of Oman. His mission today, Operation Jebel Storm, was to pour salt in that wound.

He and his wingman were tasked with an armed reconnaissance sweep deep into the Jebel Dhofar mountains, the rebels' rugged sanctuary. Their primary targets were two identified PFLO encampments, Alpha and Bravo, one a command post, the other a weapons cache. But this wasn't a simple dash in and out. Slung under their wings were 100-gallon drop tanks, giving them the fuel—and the time—to loiter, to hunt patiently.

The briefing had been clear. The main threats were a suspected ZPU-2 14.5mm cannon at Camp Alpha and scattered DShK heavy machine guns. The odds were decent for a counter-insurgency op: a 32% chance of a perfect run, but a more likely 45% chance of "partial success"—a clinical phrase that meant getting the job done but likely coming home with new holes in your aircraft.

"Shepherd flight, check in," Shep's voice was calm and clipped over the radio, the accent a product of the RAF, not Oman.

"Shepherd Two, ready to go," his wingman, a young Omani pilot named Tariq, replied.

"Right then," Shep said, closing his canopy against the oppressive heat. "Let's go stir up the adoo."

The two Hunters climbed out from the coastal plain, the brilliant blue of the Arabian Sea giving way to the stark, ochre maze of the Jebel. They were lions hunting in a landscape of stone. For nearly an hour, they circled high above the coordinates for Camp Alpha, using their fuel advantage to patiently scan the wadis and ravines below. The constraint was absolute: positively identify the target. Hitting a goatherd's camp by mistake was unacceptable.

"Shepherd One, I have movement," Tariq called out. "Bottom of the wadi, two o'clock. Looks like a command tent, just like the intel photos."

Shep banked his Hunter, squinting through the canopy. He saw it. A collection of tents, a communications aerial, and, near the entrance to a cave, the tell-tale shape of a heavy anti-aircraft gun emplacement.

"Good eyes, Two. That's our man. I'll take the ZPU on the first pass. You hit the command tent. We'll come in from the west, use the sun."

Shep rolled his Hunter and dove, the rugged landscape rushing up to meet him. He lined up the ZPU emplacement in his gunsight. He was a stone's throw away when the ground erupted. Green tracers from the 14.5mm cannon clawed at the sky, thick as a man's thumb.

He ignored them, squeezing the trigger on his control column. The Hunter shuddered as four 30mm ADEN cannons roared, pouring a stream of high-explosive shells into the gun pit. He saw the emplacement disintegrate in a cloud of dust and fire just as he pulled up, jinking hard. Behind him, he heard the satisfying whoosh of Tariq's SNEB rockets impacting the command tent, which vanished in a ball of flame.

"Target Alpha destroyed," Shep reported, his heart hammering. "Let's go find Bravo."

They flew to the next set of coordinates. The rebels at the second camp, alerted by the distant explosions, were ready for them. As the Hunters approached, multiple DShK positions opened up, their tracers crisscrossing the sky.

"This one's going to be tricky," Shep said. "We'll make multiple passes. Draw their fire. Don't get predictable."

They became a pair of angry wasps, diving and climbing, striking from different angles. Shep targeted a suspected weapons cache near a cave entrance, his rockets sending a massive secondary explosion into the air, confirming the hit. Tariq strafed the trench lines, his cannons suppressing the machine gunners.

On his third pass, Shep felt a series of hard, metallic thumps along his starboard wing. The aircraft yawed violently.

"Shepherd One, you're hit!" Tariq yelled.

"I'm aware," Shep grunted, fighting the controls. A warning light for his hydraulic system flickered amber. "The objective is complete. Let's head for home."

They egressed south, leaving behind two burning, shattered encampments. Shep's Hunter was wounded but alive, the controls sluggish but responsive. They had destroyed both targets, and while his aircraft was damaged, both pilots were safe. It was a classic partial success, just as the odds-makers had predicted.

Landing back at Salalah, Shep could see the line of bullet holes stitched neatly across his wing. He had been lucky. He shut down the engine, the sudden silence deafening. The ground crew rushed out, their faces a mixture of concern and relief. Shep gave them a tired thumbs-up. Another day, another storm weathered in the Jebel. The war would go on, but today, they had won.

Search This Blog

Command: Modern Operations Scenario Creations