Operation Grozny Gates

Scenario Name: Operation Grozny Gates

Time and Date: January 15, 1995, 06:00:00 (Zulu)

Friendly Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Chechen Republic of Ichkeria (Non-State Armed Group)
Bases of Operation:

Staging Area: Hidden mountain encampment south of Grozny (43.1500° N, 45.6800° E)

Order of Battle:

Land-Based Assets and Personnel:

3x Technicals (Pickup Truck w/ DShK HMG)
2x 82mm 2B14 Podnos Mortar Teams
4x RPG-7V Anti-Tank Teams
2x Infantry Squads (AK-74, RPK)

Adversarial Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Russia
Bases of Operation:

Forward Operating Base: "Checkpoint Kavkaz" at a major intersection leading into Grozny.

Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):

Land-Based Assets and Personnel (High-Value Targets):

2x 100mm MT-12R Anti-Tank Guns

Loadout: AT-10 Stabber [9M117 Bastion] ATGMs, 100mm AP, 100mm HE rounds.
Location 1: 43.2550° N, 45.7100° E (covering western approach)
Location 2: 43.2545° N, 45.7115° E (covering southern approach)

Other Land-Based Assets:

3x BMP-2 Infantry Fighting Vehicles: In defensive berms around the checkpoint.
2x Infantry Platoons: Manning trenches and fighting positions.
1x ZU-23-2 Anti-Aircraft Gun: Positioned for ground and air defense.
Location of Checkpoint Kavkaz: Centered at 43.2548° N, 45.7108° E

Mission & Objectives:

Geopolitical Situation:
The First Chechen War is raging. Russian federal forces have encircled the capital city of Grozny and are attempting to tighten their grip by establishing heavily fortified checkpoints on all major access roads. A key position, designated "Checkpoint Kavkaz," is preventing Chechen fighters and supplies from moving in or out of the city from the south. The checkpoint's primary defense rests on a pair of formidable 100mm MT-12R anti-tank guns, whose long-range missiles and powerful cannon can destroy any vehicle that approaches. Chechen command has ordered a surprise dawn raid to eliminate these guns and break the siege line.
Friendly Mission:
You are the commander of a Chechen raiding party. Your mission is to conduct a coordinated surprise attack on "Checkpoint Kavkaz." You must use the terrain and the element of surprise to get your RPG teams and technicals in range to neutralize the two 100mm MT-12R anti-tank guns. Your mortars will provide indirect fire support to suppress the infantry in the trenches. The destruction of the MT-12Rs is the primary goal, as this will open the road for follow-on forces.
Success Criteria:

Primary Objective: Destroy both 100mm MT-12R anti-tank guns.
Secondary Objective: Destroy at least two of the three BMP-2s.
Constraint: You must initiate the attack under the cover of early morning twilight.
Constraint: Preserve at least 50% of your initial assault force for a successful exfiltration.

Operation Grozny Gates: Probability Assessment

Scenario Overview

Mission: A Chechen raiding party must conduct a dawn surprise attack on a fortified Russian checkpoint, destroy both MT-12R anti-tank guns, destroy at least two BMP-2 IFVs, and preserve at least 50% of the assault force for exfiltration.
Forces: 3 technicals (DShK HMG), 2 mortar teams, 4 RPG-7V teams, 2 infantry squads.
Adversary: 2 MT-12R anti-tank guns (with ATGMs), 3 BMP-2 IFVs, 2 infantry platoons, 1 ZU-23-2 AA gun, entrenched and alert.

Key Factors Affecting Mission Outcome

1. Surprise and Terrain

Chechen fighters historically leveraged terrain, surprise, and small-unit tactics to offset Russian firepower1 2.
Early morning twilight provides concealment, but Russian positions are fortified and have overlapping fields of fire3 4.

2. Effectiveness of Chechen Weapons

RPG-7V: Highly effective against lightly armored vehicles and static gun positions at close range. Can penetrate up to 11–13 inches of RHA, easily defeating BMP-2 and MT-12R shields if flanked or hit from the rear5 6 7.
Mortars: Useful for suppressing infantry and disrupting defensive positions, but less effective against armored targets unless scoring a direct hit or near-miss8.
Technicals (DShK): Effective for suppressive fire and engaging soft targets, but vulnerable to return fire from BMP-2s and anti-tank guns9 1.

3. Russian Defensive Strength

MT-12R anti-tank guns: Long-range, accurate, and deadly against vehicles, but vulnerable to flanking and close assault if not well-supported10 11.
BMP-2 IFVs: Vulnerable to RPGs, especially from the sides or rear; top armor is weak12 13 7.
Infantry and ZU-23-2: Provide overlapping fields of fire and can inflict heavy casualties on exposed attackers.

4. Casualty Risk and Exfiltration

Chechen assaults on fortified positions often resulted in high casualties, especially if the element of surprise was lost or if the defenders responded quickly with coordinated fire3 14.
Preserving at least 50% of the force requires rapid, coordinated action and immediate withdrawal after objectives are met.

Probability Breakdown

Mission Phase / Objective	Probability (%)
Achieve surprise and close to effective RPG/mortar range	65
Destroy both MT-12R anti-tank guns	60
Destroy at least two BMP-2 IFVs	45
Preserve ≥50% of assault force for exfiltration	50

Combined Full Mission Success

Probability of achieving all objectives (both MT-12Rs and ≥2 BMP-2s destroyed, ≥50% force survives):

0.65×0.60×0.45×0.50≈0.090.65 \times 0.60 \times 0.45 \times 0.50 \approx 0.090.65×0.60×0.45×0.50≈0.09 (~9%)

Partial Success

Probability of destroying both MT-12Rs and preserving ≥50% of force, but failing to destroy two BMP-2s:
~18%
Probability of destroying one MT-12R and at least one BMP-2, with ≥50% force surviving:
~25%

Failure

Probability of failing to destroy both MT-12Rs, suffering >50% casualties, or being repulsed:
~48%

Summary Table

Outcome Description	Probability (%)
Full Success (all objectives, ≥50% force survives)	9
Partial Success (primary met, but not all BMP-2s or higher loss)	43
Failure (major losses, MT-12Rs survive, or repulsed)	48

Key Points

Most likely outcome: The Chechen raiding party achieves partial success—destroying at least one MT-12R and possibly a BMP-2, but at significant cost.
Greatest risks: Loss of surprise, rapid Russian response, and concentrated fire from BMP-2s and entrenched infantry.
Best practices for success:

Maximize use of terrain and darkness for approach.
Prioritize simultaneous, coordinated strikes on both MT-12Rs.
Use mortars to suppress infantry and technicals to distract BMP-2s.
Withdraw immediately after objectives are met to preserve force.

In summary:

Odds of full mission success: ~9%
Odds of partial success: ~43%
Odds of failure: ~48%

Operation Grozny Gates is a high-risk, high-payoff raid, with the main threats being robust Russian defenses and the challenge of achieving overwhelming destruction with limited insurgent resources1 5 12 13 7 14.

The grey, pre-dawn light of January 15, 1995, was the color of a fresh grave. It was a cold, unforgiving light that offered no warmth, only the vague shape of the frozen mud and shattered trees south of Grozny. Aslan, commander of the small raiding party, watched his men make their final preparations. They were ghosts in the twilight, their faces wrapped in wool, their breath pluming in the frigid air. They were farmers, students, and mechanics, and today they were the fist of Chechnya.

Their target was a festering sore on the main road into the capital, a Russian fortified position designated "Checkpoint Kavkaz." It was a knot of trenches, BMPs, and infantry, but its heart was a pair of 100mm MT-12R anti-tank guns. These guns, with their long-range cannons and laser-guided missiles, could kill anything that dared approach the city from the south. They were the locks on the gates of Grozny, and Aslan's mission was to break them.

His force was a motley collection of what could be scavenged and repurposed for war. Three pickup trucks, or "technicals," with heavy DShK machine guns bolted to their beds. Two 82mm mortar teams. Four two-man RPG-7 teams, the key to the entire operation. And two squads of infantry, their AK-74s held with a grim familiarity. The plan was brutal and simple: use the terrain and the dawn to get close, then overwhelm the checkpoint with a sudden, violent storm of fire.

The Russian intelligence officers would have called it suicide. Aslan’s own briefing, based on reports from scouts, gave them a 9% chance of perfect success. The most likely outcome was a 43% chance of "partial success"—destroying the main guns but at a terrible cost. He looked at his fighters. They knew the odds. They had accepted them.

"The mortars will fire on my signal," Aslan whispered into his radio, his voice a low growl. "RPG teams, you have your targets. Do not fire until the mortars have struck. Technicals, you will suppress the trenches. Go."

They moved like wraiths through the shattered landscape, using drainage ditches and the husks of burnt-out buildings for cover. The Russian checkpoint loomed ahead, a dark cancer on the landscape, its defensive berms and concertina wire just becoming visible.

Aslan raised his hand, then brought it down sharply.

The first two mortar rounds, fired with a hollow thump-thump from a kilometer away, landed with surprising accuracy in the center of the Russian trench line. The explosions were the signal.

From three different positions, the RPG teams rose as one. The distinctive, fiery backblast of the rocket-propelled grenades lit up the dawn. The first rocket streaked across the open ground and slammed into the side of one of the MT-12R guns, turning it into a twisted wreck of shattered steel.

The checkpoint erupted into a cacophony of panicked shouting and gunfire. The ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft gun, depressed for ground fire, began to hammer away, its tracers ripping through the half-light. The three Chechen technicals roared from their hiding places, their DShK machine guns chattering, pouring heavy fire into the Russian positions and drawing the attention of the BMPs.

"The second gun! Where is the second gun?" Aslan screamed over the radio.

He saw it then, tucked behind a BMP, its long barrel traversing towards his men. "RPG team two, on the second gun! Now!"

Another rocket hissed through the air, but it struck the earthen berm in front of the gun, exploding harmlessly. The MT-12R fired, its massive report a deafening roar. The shell screamed over their heads, but the message was clear. They had one chance.

A BMP-2, its 30mm cannon spitting fire, lurched forward to engage the technicals. An RPG team, seeing its chance, fired from the flank. The rocket struck the BMP's thin side armor, and the vehicle brewed up in a plume of black, oily smoke.

The battle descended into a chaotic, close-range brawl. Aslan’s infantry squads advanced, firing their AK-74s, clearing trenches. But the Russians, recovering from the initial shock, fought back with disciplined fury. One of the technicals was hit by a BMP and exploded. The mortar fire suppressed the infantry, but the remaining MT-12R was a fortress, its crew protected by the nearby fighting vehicle.

Aslan knew the window of surprise was closed. They were taking casualties. "All teams, focus on the last gun!" he yelled. "Suppress the BMP!"

Two RPG teams fired almost simultaneously. One rocket hit the BMP, disabling its turret. The other, a perfect shot, slammed directly into the breech of the last MT-12R. The gun crew vanished in the explosion.

The primary objective was complete. They had also destroyed two of the three BMPs. But the cost was mounting. He saw his men falling in the trenches.

"Withdraw!" Aslan commanded. "Fall back to the rally point! Now!"

They disengaged, dragging their wounded with them, firing as they retreated into the smoky dawn. A quick headcount at the rally point told the grim story. They had started with over thirty men. Less than half remained. They had broken the gates of Grozny, but the price had been steep. It was not the 9% miracle. It was the bloody, brutal reality of a 43% partial success. Aslan looked back at the burning checkpoint, then at the faces of his surviving fighters. They had won, but in the savage arithmetic of this war, their victory felt like a wound that would never heal.

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