Operation Scimitar Strike
Scenario Name: Operation Scimitar Strike
Time and Date: February 12, 1986, 03:00:00 (Zulu)
Friendly Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: Iraq
Bases of Operation:
Airbase: H-2 Air Base, Iraq (33.8058° N, 39.6331° E)
Order of Battle:
Aircraft:
4x Mirage F1EQ-5
Loadout (per aircraft): 2x BGL-1000 Laser-Guided Bombs, 1x ATLIS II Targeting Pod, 2x R.550 Magic II Air-to-Air Missiles
Home Base: H-2 Air Base
Adversarial Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: Iran
Bases of Operation:
Airbase: Tabriz Air Base, Iran (38.1333° N, 46.2333° E)
Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):
Land-Based Assets and Personnel:
6x A/C Camouflaged Parking Spot (1x Medium Aircraft) 1
Location 1: 38.1290° N, 46.2400° E
Location 2: 38.1295° N, 46.2405° E
Location 3: 38.1300° N, 46.2410° E
Location 4: 38.1340° N, 46.2300° E
Location 5: 38.1345° N, 46.2305° E
Location 6: 38.1350° N, 46.2310° E
Note: Each parking spot is a soft structure with 300 damage points. 2
Aircraft on Ground (High-Value Targets):
4x F-4E Phantom II: Parked in four of the camouflaged spots. These are the primary targets.
Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS):
MIM-23B I-HAWK SAM Site: Providing primary air defense for the base. (38.1450° N, 46.2500° E)
ZU-23-2 Anti-Aircraft Guns: Several positions providing point defense around the parking aprons.
Early Warning Radars:
AN/FPS-100: Providing long-range air surveillance for the region.
Mission & Objectives:
Geopolitical Situation:
The Iran-Iraq War has entered the "War of the Cities," with both sides launching air and missile attacks against population centers and economic targets. Iraqi intelligence reports that a squadron of Iranian F-4E Phantoms at Tabriz Air Base is being prepared for a major retaliatory strike against Baghdad. To preempt this attack, the Iraqi Air Force has been ordered to conduct a surgical strike to destroy these specific aircraft on the ground. The Phantoms are housed in newly constructed camouflaged parking spots designed to protect them from satellite and photo reconnaissance.Friendly Mission:
You are the flight lead of a four-ship element of Mirage F1EQ-5s. Your mission is to conduct a low-level, high-speed ingress to Tabriz Air Base. Using your ATLIS II targeting pods, you must positively identify the camouflaged parking spots 3 housing the F-4E Phantoms and destroy them using your BGL-1000 laser-guided bombs. The success of this mission depends on precision and surprise to neutralize the threat before it can be launched against your homeland.Success Criteria:
Primary Objective: Destroy all four F-4E Phantom II aircraft located in their camouflaged parking spots.
Secondary Objective: Avoid losses to your strike package.
Constraint: You must positively identify your targets before releasing ordnance to avoid hitting empty revetments.
Constraint: The mission must be conducted at night to maximize the effectiveness of your low-level approach.
Operation Scimitar Strike: Probability Assessment
Scenario Overview
Mission: Four Iraqi Mirage F1EQ-5s must conduct a night, low-level precision strike on Tabriz Air Base to destroy four camouflaged F-4E Phantom II aircraft, positively identify targets before release, and avoid losses to the strike package.
Adversary: Iranian IADS with MIM-23B I-HAWK SAMs, ZU-23-2 AAA, AN/FPS-100 early warning radar, and camouflaged parking spots for the Phantoms.
Key Threats and Mission Factors
1. Detection and Interception Risk
AN/FPS-100 radar provides long-range surveillance, but a low-level, night approach reduces detection range and reaction time.
I-HAWK SAMs are highly effective against medium/high-altitude targets, but their engagement envelope is limited at very low altitude.
ZU-23-2 AAA is a significant threat during the attack run and egress, especially if the Mirages are forced to climb or slow down for target identification and laser designation.
2. Target Identification and Bombing Accuracy
ATLIS II targeting pods provide night-capable laser designation, but positive identification of camouflaged targets at night is challenging and may require multiple passes or slower approaches, increasing exposure.
BGL-1000 LGBs are highly accurate if the target is properly designated, but require stable tracking and line-of-sight.
3. Survivability
Low-level ingress minimizes exposure to SAMs but increases risk from AAA and small arms.
Night operations reduce visual detection and complicate AAA fire, but do not eliminate risk.
Surprise is critical; if the base is alerted, the risk of losses rises sharply.
Probability Breakdown
Combined Full Mission Success
Probability of achieving all objectives (all four F-4Es destroyed, no Mirage losses, positive ID):
0.65×0.60×0.55×0.60≈0.130.65 \times 0.60 \times 0.55 \times 0.60 \approx 0.130.65×0.60×0.55×0.60≈0.13 (~13%)
Partial Success
Probability of destroying at least two or three F-4Es and losing no more than one Mirage:
~40%
Failure
Probability of failing to destroy the majority of targets, suffering multiple losses, or failing to positively identify targets:
~47%
Summary Table
Key Points
Most likely outcome: The strike achieves partial success, destroying some but not all F-4Es, with a moderate risk of losing one Mirage to AAA or SAMs.
Greatest risks: Difficulty of positive target ID at night, exposure to AAA during attack runs, and the possibility of alerting the base before all bombs are released.
Best practices for success:
Maximize surprise and maintain low altitude until the last moment.
Use coordinated attack runs to minimize time over target.
Prioritize rapid, accurate target identification to reduce exposure.
In summary:
Odds of full mission success: ~13%
Odds of partial success: ~40%
Odds of failure: ~47%
Operation Scimitar Strike is a high-risk, high-payoff precision strike, with the main threats being robust Iranian air defenses and the challenge of positive target identification under night combat conditions.
The vast, star-dusted sky over the western Iraqi desert was a cold, indifferent witness. From the cockpit of his Mirage F1EQ-5, Major Jassim al-Din watched the ground crews at H-2 Air Base make their final checks. The date was February 12, 1986, and the "War of the Cities" was at its bloodiest. Jassim’s mission tonight, codenamed "Scimitar Strike," was not to retaliate, but to preempt.
Intelligence was ironclad: four Iranian F-4E Phantoms at Tabriz Air Base were being armed for a major strike against Baghdad. Jassim and his three wingmen were to be the scimitar that cut the head off that snake before it could strike. Theirs was a mission of surgical precision. They were not to level the base, but to find and destroy four specific camouflaged shelters housing the Phantoms, using BGL-1000 laser-guided bombs.
The briefing had been a sobering affair. Their low-level approach was designed to sneak them under the long-range AN/FPS-100 radar, but once they neared Tabriz, they would be in the kill-box of an Iranian I-HAWK SAM battery and a hornet's nest of ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns. The mission planners had given them a 13% chance of a perfect outcome—all targets destroyed, all pilots home safe. The most likely scenario, at 40%, was "partial success," a euphemism for a bloody, costly fight.
"Scimitar flight, check in," Jassim's voice was a calm, steady baritone over the radio.
"Two, green."
"Three, green."
"Four, green."
"Let's go hunting," Jassim said.
The four Mirages lifted off into the darkness, forming a tight diamond before dropping to just a few hundred feet off the desert floor. They flew east, a quartet of silver ghosts hugging the terrain, their navigation systems their only guide in the blackness. For over an hour, they were silent predators, crossing into hostile Iranian airspace without a whisper.
As they approached the target area, the most dangerous phase began. "Scimitar flight, pop-up for target acquisition," Jassim ordered.
The Mirages climbed slightly, exposing themselves to enemy radar for the first time. On Jassim's console, the screen of his ATLIS II targeting pod flickered to life, presenting the world in a grainy, monochromatic green. He slewed the camera towards the coordinates of the first parking area. He saw the faint outlines of shelters, designed to blend in with the earth. The constraint was absolute: positively identify the targets. Hitting an empty shelter was a wasted bomb and a wasted life.
"I have movement near shelter one... heat signature from a generator," Jassim reported. "That's a live target. Scimitar Two, you are cleared to engage. I will lase."
Jassim locked the targeting pod's crosshairs onto the shelter. "Lasing now."
"Two has the laser," his wingman confirmed. "Bomb away."
Jassim held the laser steady, counting the seconds, his knuckles white on the control stick. The world below them erupted. Tracers from the ZU-23-2 guns began reaching up, green and red lines trying to swat them from the sky.
A brilliant flash confirmed the hit. The shelter and the Phantom within it vanished in a ball of fire.
"Good hit! Good hit!" Jassim yelled. "Scimitar Three, I am designating your target now!"
The deadly dance continued. Jassim designated, his wingmen dropped their bombs. The second Phantom was destroyed. But the Iranian defenses were fully awake now. A HAWK missile launched, a fiery streak tearing through the night.
"Chaff! Flares! Break right!"
The missile detonated harmlessly behind them, but the sky was now thick with flak. As Scimitar Four rolled in for his attack on the third Phantom, his aircraft shuddered violently.
"I'm hit! I'm hit! Fire in the starboard engine!"
"Drop your ordnance and get out!" Jassim screamed.
The damaged Mirage jettisoned its bombs—one went wide, but the other struck true, destroying the third Phantom. The pilot managed to extinguish the fire and turn for home, his aircraft trailing smoke.
The fourth Phantom remained. "Scimitar Three, it's on you! I will lase!" Jassim yelled, pulling his aircraft into a steep, jinking turn to avoid the curtain of flak. He designated the final shelter.
"Bomb away!" Three called.
The bomb tracked perfectly, and the last Phantom was consumed by fire. All four primary targets were destroyed.
"Scimitar flight, egress now! Head for the deck!"
The three remaining Mirages, one of them badly wounded, dove for the safety of the low-level terrain and raced for the Iraqi border. They had done it. They had flown into the heart of the enemy's defenses and cut out the threat. It wasn't the clean, perfect 13% success. It was the messy, terrifying, 40% partial success. They had won, but the cost was evident in the smoke trailing from Scimitar Four's engine and the ragged holes in their own airframes. As they crossed back into friendly airspace, Jassim knew that the people of Baghdad would sleep safe tonight, blissfully unaware of the brutal, bloody price paid for their peace.
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