Operation Iron Hammer

Scenario Name: Operation Iron Hammer

Time and Date: April 27, 1972, 23:00:00 (Zulu)

Friendly Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Soviet Union
Bases of Operation:

Airbase: Mary-2 Air Base, Turkmen SSR, Soviet Union / Mary International Airport - UTAM

Order of Battle:

Aircraft:

2x 3M 'Bison-B' Strategic Bombers

Loadout (per aircraft): 6x FAB-3000M-46 GPB
Home Base: Mary-2 Air Base

Adversarial Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: People's Republic of China
Bases of Operation:

Military Installation: Lop Nur Nuclear Test Base, Xinjiang, China

Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):

Ground-Based Threats:

Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS):

S-75 Dvina (SA-2 Guideline) SAM Sites: Several batteries are suspected to be defending the perimeter of the Lop Nur complex. (Estimated locations: 41.7° N, 89.8° E and 41.5° N, 89.6° E)
100mm KS-19 Anti-Aircraft Guns: Likely positioned to defend key facilities within the test site.

Early Warning Radars:

P-12 (Spoon Rest) Early Warning Radar: Expected to be providing surveillance in the region, supporting the S-75 sites. (Estimated location: 41.8° N, 90.1° E)

Aircraft:

Shenyang J-6 (MiG-19) Interceptors: Squadrons are likely on high alert at nearby airbases such as Malan Airbase (41.5472° N, 89.2611° E) to protect the high-value site.

Mission & Objectives:

Geopolitical Situation:
The Sino-Soviet split has devolved from ideological conflict to open hostility. Following border clashes on the Ussuri River, intelligence reports indicate that China is making rapid preparations for a full-scale atmospheric nuclear test at its Lop Nur facility. This test is seen by the Soviet Politburo as a direct strategic threat and a dangerous escalation. In a bid to cripple the Chinese nuclear program without resorting to a nuclear first strike, Soviet High Command has authorized a deniable, high-risk conventional air raid. The mission's goal is to destroy the primary assembly and launch infrastructure at Lop Nur using heavy conventional munitions under the cover of darkness.
Friendly Mission:
You are to command a two-ship flight of 3M 'Bison-B' bombers on a deep-penetration, low-level night strike against the Chinese nuclear test facilities at Lop Nur. Your primary targets are the heavily reinforced concrete structures critical for the upcoming test. The mission requires precise navigation to avoid early detection and a swift, coordinated bombing run to maximize destruction.
Success Criteria:

Primary Objective: Destroy the main weapons assembly building at Lop Nur (Coordinates: 41.658° N, 89.782° E).
Secondary Objective: Destroy the nearby launch tower support and instrumentation facility (Coordinates: 41.662° N, 89.791° E).
Constraint: Both aircraft must return to Soviet airspace. A return to any friendly base within the USSR will be considered a success.
Constraint: Maintain strict electronic silence until 100 nautical miles from the target area to delay detection.

Operation Iron Hammer: Probability Assessment

Scenario Overview

Mission: Two Soviet 3M 'Bison-B' bombers conduct a deep-penetration, low-level night strike against the Lop Nur nuclear test facility in Xinjiang, China, aiming to destroy key infrastructure and return both aircraft safely to Soviet airspace.
Key Threats: Multiple S-75 Dvina (SA-2) SAM batteries, 100mm KS-19 anti-aircraft guns, P-12 early warning radar, and J-6 (MiG-19) interceptors on high alert.

Key Factors Affecting Mission Outcome

1. Early Warning and Detection

The P-12 (Spoon Rest) radar provides 360° surveillance and is specifically designed to cue S-75 batteries against high-altitude bombers. Even with strict electronic silence, detection is likely once the bombers are within 100 nm of the target.
Nighttime, low-level approach reduces detection range but does not eliminate it, especially as the bombers close on the target area1.

2. SAM and AAA Threats

S-75 Dvina (SA-2): Highly effective against high- and medium-altitude bombers, with a proven record of downing large aircraft in the 1960s and 1970s2 3 4. At low altitude, the engagement envelope is reduced, but the risk remains significant, especially during the bomb run and egress.
100mm KS-19 Guns: Effective at medium altitudes, but less so against fast, low-flying bombers at night. Still, they pose a threat during the attack run and egress if the bombers are forced to climb or slow down.

3. Interceptor Threat

J-6 (MiG-19) Interceptors: Capable of rapid scramble and high-speed interception, but their effectiveness at night is limited by radar and GCI capabilities of the era. However, if the bombers are detected, a coordinated intercept is possible, especially during egress5 6.

4. Bombing Accuracy and Target Destruction

FAB-3000M-46 Bombs: These are heavy, unguided bombs. At night and from low altitude, accuracy is improved compared to high-altitude drops, but the Circular Error Probable (CEP) is still likely to be 100–200 meters or more. Achieving destruction of hardened, point targets (assembly building, launch tower) is challenging, but saturation with multiple bombs increases the odds7.

5. Bomber Survivability and Egress

Both bombers must survive the ingress, attack, and egress phases. The main risks are from S-75 launches during the attack and from J-6 interceptors or AAA during egress. Night operations and strict EMCON improve survivability, but do not guarantee it.

Probability Breakdown

Mission Phase / Objective	Probability (%)
Penetrate to target area with both bombers	65
Achieve destruction of main assembly building	50
Destroy launch tower/instrumentation facility	40
Both bombers return to Soviet airspace	55
Avoid engagement with interceptors (unless in self-defense)	70

Combined Full Mission Success

Probability of achieving all objectives (both targets destroyed, both bombers return):

0.65×0.50×0.40×0.55≈0.070.65 \times 0.50 \times 0.40 \times 0.55 \approx 0.070.65×0.50×0.40×0.55≈0.07 (~7%)

Partial Success

Probability of destroying at least one target and returning both bombers, or destroying both targets but losing one bomber:
~25%

Failure

Probability of failing to destroy either target, or losing both bombers:
~68%

Summary Table

Outcome Description	Probability (%)
Full Success (both targets destroyed, both bombers return)	7
Partial Success (one target destroyed and/or one bomber lost)	25
Failure (major losses or no target destroyed)	68

Key Points

Most likely outcome: The bomber force is detected by radar, faces S-75 launches and possible J-6 interception, and may suffer losses or only partial target destruction.
Greatest risks: Early detection, effective SAM engagement, and the challenge of precision bombing against hardened targets at night.
Best practices for success:

Maintain strict EMCON and low-level approach as long as possible.
Coordinate bomb runs for maximum saturation and speed.
Egress rapidly and unpredictably to minimize exposure to interceptors and AAA.

In summary:

Odds of full mission success: ~7%
Odds of partial success: ~25%
Odds of failure: ~68%

Operation Iron Hammer is a high-risk, high-stakes deep-penetration strike, with the main threats being robust Chinese air defenses and the inherent difficulty of precision night bombing with heavy unguided munitions2 3 7.

The air at Mary-2 Air Base on April 27, 1972, was cold and thin, mirroring the chillingly slim odds of Operation Iron Hammer. Colonel Ivan Morozov stood on the tarmac, watching the ground crews complete their final checks on Zarya-1, his Myasishchev 3M 'Bison-B' bomber. Strapped in its belly were six FAB-3000M-46 bombs, colossal cylinders of high explosive intended to shatter the core of China's nuclear program at Lop Nur.

The mission profile was audacious, almost suicidal: a "Hi-Hi-Hi" deep penetration strike. They would cruise at 36,000 feet, a cruising altitude that made the Bison a stark, exposed target against the night sky. The ideological chasm between the Soviet Union and China had widened into open hostility, and Beijing's planned atmospheric test at Lop Nur was a provocation the Kremlin refused to ignore. This conventional strike was the chosen response—a deniable, surgical blow.

The briefing had laid bare the terrifying reality of their flight path. At 36,000 feet, they would be squarely in the optimal engagement envelope of the Chinese S-75 Dvina SAM sites—the dreaded SA-2 Guideline that had haunted American pilots over Vietnam. Waiting for any survivors would be squadrons of Shenyang J-6 interceptors.

The final slide of the briefing, with its stark probability assessment, was seared into Ivan’s memory. A 7% chance of full success. A 68% chance of failure. And the most demanding constraint of all: Both aircraft must return to Soviet airspace. The mission was a gamble against overwhelming odds.

"All systems green, Colonel," reported his co-pilot, Major Pavel Lisitsyn. "Ready for the climb."

"Let's put some air beneath us," Ivan replied, his voice calm over the intercom, betraying none of the cold apprehension he felt.

The two bombers, Zarya-1 and Zarya-2, ascended into the vast emptiness of the night. They leveled off at 36,000 feet, two silver specks sailing in a sea of stars, the curvature of the Earth a faint, pale line on the horizon. For hours, they flew in strict electronic silence, the only sounds the steady drone of their four Dobrynin turbojets and the hiss of oxygen in their masks. Below them, the desolate expanse of the Taklamakan Desert was a dark, featureless void. There was no terrain to hide in, no valleys to mask their approach. They were utterly exposed.

"Passing the detection threshold," the navigator announced. "Breaking EMCON in five minutes."

Ivan’s gaze flickered to the electronic warfare officer’s console. The moment they broke radio silence to coordinate their final run, the Chinese would know they were there. The dread was a physical presence in the cockpit.

"EMCON broken," the EWO said, his voice tight. As if on cue, a strobe began its methodical sweep across his screen. "Contact. P-12 Spoon Rest radar. We're painted. They see us." A second later, a more menacing tone pulsed through the crew's headsets. "And we have a lock. Fan Song fire control radar. Multiple sites."

"SAM launch! SAM launch!" the EWO screamed. "Multiple contacts, climbing fast!"

Far below, fiery exclamation points ascended from the desert floor, their rocket motors propelling them towards the two bombers at breathtaking speed.

"Evasive maneuvers! Deploy countermeasures!" Ivan commanded, wrenching the colossal aircraft into a hard bank, the airframe groaning in protest. The Bison was a strategic bomber, not a nimble fighter. It felt like trying to make a whale dance.

One missile detonated a thousand feet below them, a brilliant, silent flash of orange and white. Shrapnel from a second tore through their starboard wing, the impact a percussive clang that reverberated through the fuselage. A frantic call came from their wingman.

"Zarya-2 is hit! Direct hit! Mayday, mayday—" The transmission ended in a burst of static.

Ivan looked to his right. Where his wingman had been, there was only a blossoming fireball, a new, temporary star in the night sky that quickly plummeted towards the earth. The SA-2s had claimed their first victim. They were alone.

"Press the attack!" Ivan roared, his voice thick with a mixture of fury and grief. He leveled the wings, his eyes fixed on the bombing computer. Below, the target facilities at Lop Nur were an insignificant smudge in the vast darkness, the primary assembly building a tiny, reinforced concrete target over six miles below.

"Bomb bay doors open!" Pavel confirmed, his face illuminated by the red glow of warning lights.

Another SAM streaked past, close enough that Ivan could see the dark shape of the missile itself. He fought the controls, trying to keep the crosshairs steady. Releasing unguided bombs from this altitude was more an act of faith than a science.

"Steady… steady… Bombs away!"

The Bison jumped as its eighteen-ton payload fell free, beginning its long, silent plunge. Ivan threw the bomber into a steep, diving turn, desperate to escape the lethal airspace. He didn't look back to see the result. The mission now had only one objective: survive.

J-6 interceptors, vectored to their position, appeared as angry fireflies in the distance, but the damaged bomber, now in a shallow descent to gain speed, was pulling away. The primary threat remained the SAMs, but they had passed the point of maximum danger.

The return flight was a grim, lonely ordeal. The shrapnel-damaged wing caused a constant, unnerving vibration, and the tail section was reporting control sluggishness. They limped across the Soviet border as the sun's first rays breached the horizon, a single, battered survivor of a two-ship raid.

The debriefing confirmed the outcome. Reconnaissance later showed the main assembly building had been destroyed; a lucky stick of bombs had walked directly across the structure. The primary objective was complete. But the launch tower remained untouched, a bomber and its crew were lost, and the mission's strictest constraint had been shattered.

It wasn't victory, and it wasn't total failure. It was the brutal calculus of the 25% "Partial Success" probability. Walking away from his wounded aircraft, Colonel Morozov felt only the immense weight of the cost. The Iron Hammer had struck its target, but it had been broken against the high, unforgiving anvil of the Xinjiang sky.

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