Operation Red Tide, Black Sea
Scenario Name: Operation Red Tide, Black Sea
Time and Date: December 15, 1979, 02:00:00 (Zulu)
Friendly Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: Soviet Union
Bases of Operation:
Airbase: Oktyabrskoye Air Base, Crimean Oblast, Ukrainian SSR (45°19'18.0"N 34°06'11.0"E)
Order of Battle:
Aircraft:
4x 3M 'Bison-B' Strategic Bombers
Loadout (per aircraft): 28x FAB-500M-54 GPB 1
Home Base: Oktyabrskoye Air Base
Adversarial Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: Turkey & United States Navy
Bases of Operation:
Naval Base: Gölcük Naval Base, Turkey (40.723122399690574, 29.822675353419957)
Airbase: Incirlik Air Base, Turkey (37.0019° N, 35.4261° E)
Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):
Naval Assets:
Forrestal-class Aircraft Carrier, USS Independence (CV-62): Operating in the southern Black Sea. (Approximate starting location: 42.1° N, 36.5° E)
California-class Cruiser, USS South Carolina (CGN-37): Escorting the USS Independence.
Spruance-class Destroyer, USS Comte de Grasse (DD-974): Escorting the USS Independence.
Knox-class Frigate, USS Miller (FF-1091): Escorting the USS Independence.
Aircraft:
F-4S Phantom II: Aboard USS Independence.
F-14A Tomcat: Squadrons from the US Air Force are suspected to be forward-deployed to Incirlik Air Base.
Ground-Based Threats:
Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS):
Nike Hercules SAM Site: Near Sinop, Turkey, covering the southern Black Sea coast. (42.0228° N, 35.1539° E)
Early Warning Radars:
AN/FPS-17 Radar: At Sinop, providing long-range surveillance over the Black Sea.
Mission & Objectives:
Geopolitical Situation:
The Iran Hostage Crisis has created extreme instability in the Middle East. In response to the impending Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and to signal strong support for Turkey and project power into the region, the United States has taken the unprecedented step of deploying the USS Independence carrier battle group into the Black Sea, a clear violation of the Montreux Convention in the Soviet view. The presence of a US carrier in what Moscow considers its strategic backyard is deemed an unacceptable provocation. The Soviet Black Sea Fleet is put on high alert, but leadership decides a naval confrontation is too risky. Instead, the Politburo authorizes a massive, conventional air power demonstration to intimidate the US carrier group and force its withdrawal. A force of 'Bison-B' bombers from the Crimean Peninsula will execute a simulated, high-speed, low-level bombing run aimed directly at the carrier group.Friendly Mission:
You are to command a four-ship formation of 3M 'Bison-B' bombers on a high-speed, high-level mock strike against the USS Independence carrier battle group. Your objective is not to sink the ships, but to demonstrate the capability and resolve to do so. You will approach the targets at high altitude, execute a simulated bombing run on the carrier, and immediately egress back to Soviet airspace. The mission's success is defined by the psychological impact on the US naval commanders.Success Criteria:
Primary Objective: Overfly the USS Independence (CV-62) at an altitude 36,000 feet above sea level.
Secondary Objective: Achieve a "weapons-release" solution on the USS Independence with your bomb sights, without actually dropping ordnance.
Constraint: Do not lose any aircraft. This is a show of force, not a suicide mission.
Constraint: Do not open fire on any US or Turkish assets unless fired upon first. The rules of engagement are strictly for self-defense.
Based on the scenario details and historical context, here are the calculated odds for success and failure of Operation Red Tide, Black Sea:
Probability Assessment
Key Mission Phases and Threats
Objective: Four 3M 'Bison-B' bombers must overfly the USS Independence at 36,000 ft, achieve a simulated weapons-release solution, and return to base with no losses or hostile engagement.
Threats:
US Navy Carrier Group: F-4S Phantoms on CAP, F-14A Tomcats (potentially from Incirlik), and layered SAM coverage from escorts.
Turkish Air Defenses: Nike Hercules SAM site near Sinop, AN/FPS-17 radar for early warning.
Rules of Engagement: Strictly no firing unless fired upon, and no losses permitted.
Probability Estimates
Based on historical Cold War bomber penetration exercises and the scenario constraints:
Combined probability of full mission success:
Psuccess=0.75×0.70×0.85×0.95≈0.424P_{success} = 0.75 \times 0.70 \times 0.85 \times 0.95 \approx 0.424Psuccess=0.75×0.70×0.85×0.95≈0.424
Probability of failure:
Pfailure=1−Psuccess=0.576P_{failure} = 1 - P_{success} = 0.576Pfailure=1−Psuccess=0.576
Summary Table
Key Points
Most likely outcome: The bomber force completes the simulated strike, but there is a significant chance (58%) that at least one aircraft is lost, intercepted, or fails to achieve a weapons solution due to robust US/Turkish air defenses and early warning systems.
Greatest risks: Early detection by AN/FPS-17 radar, rapid CAP interception by F-4s/F-14s, and Nike Hercules SAM engagement.
Best practices for success: Maintain strict formation, maximize ECM use, and adhere to flight profile to minimize exposure.
In summary:
Odds of full mission success: ~42%
Odds of failure: ~58%
These odds reflect the high tension, robust adversary defenses, and the challenge of a high-visibility show-of-force mission in the Cold War Black Sea theater.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_F-4_Phantom_II
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/app/uploads/2024/09/AFmag_1984_12.pdf
https://mapsairmuseum.org/mcdonnell-douglas-f-4s-phantom-ii/
https://merip.org/1980/09/the-carter-doctrine-and-us-bases-in-the-middle-east/
The Black Sea was a sheet of ink under the moonless December sky. At Oktyabrskoye Air Base on the Crimean Peninsula, the air, sharp with the coming winter, was heavy with the smell of kerosene and geopolitical tension. It was 02:00 Zulu, December 15, 1979. Colonel Anton Belov watched as the last of the FAB-500M-54 bombs were declared inert for the flight, their presence in the bomb bays of his four 3M 'Bison-B' bombers purely for show. This was not a mission of destruction, but of intimidation. A message.
The world’s eyes were on Iran and the unfolding hostage crisis. The Soviet Union was poised on the brink of invading Afghanistan. In response, the Americans had made an audacious move, sending the USS Independence carrier battle group steaming into the Black Sea. To Moscow, this was an intolerable provocation, a violation of the Montreux Convention and a direct challenge in their strategic backyard. A naval clash was too risky, so the Politburo had chosen a different instrument: Anton's bomber wing. Operation Red Tide was to be a demonstration of overwhelming airpower, a simulated strike to force the American fleet to reconsider its position.
The briefing had been tense. Their target was not a set of coordinates, but the psychological resolve of a US Navy admiral. They were to fly a high-altitude profile, straight and level at 36,000 feet, overfly the carrier, achieve a "weapons-release solution" with their bomb sights, and then turn for home. The constraints were absolute: do not open fire unless fired upon, and do not lose a single aircraft. The mission was a high-wire act with no safety net. The final probability assessment gave them a chilling 42% chance of full success. Failure, in this context, was the more likely outcome.
"Formation is set, Colonel," his co-pilot reported as they climbed through the frigid air, leveling off at 36,000 feet.
The four Bisons, callsigns Krechet 1 through 4, formed a perfect, menacing diamond against the stars. They were a flying declaration of intent, their course set for the approximate location of the American carrier group in the southern Black Sea. There was no hiding, no low-level ingress. The entire point was to be seen.
They didn't have to wait long. "Contact," the electronic warfare officer announced calmly. "AN/FPS-17 at Sinop. The Turks see us."
Minutes later, a new set of signals appeared. "Multiple contacts, sir. US Navy air search radar. They see us, too."
The radio, previously silent, now crackled with disciplined American voices. The carrier battle group was awake.
"Here they come," the EWO said. "Multiple bandits scrambling. Looks like Phantoms."
From their god-like perch, Anton and his crew watched as contrails began to etch the sky below them. Two, then four, F-4S Phantom IIs from the Independence ascended with aggressive speed, their sleek, predatory shapes unmistakable even from miles away. They didn't fire, but took up escort positions off the bombers' wings, a silent, deadly honor guard. The message was clear: We see you. We can touch you.
The American carrier group was now visible on their bombing radar, a tight cluster of ships with the massive, flat-topped silhouette of the Independence at its heart. The USS South Carolina, a California-class cruiser, and its destroyer and frigate escorts were perfect, glowing blips.
"On the final run," Anton announced, his voice steady. The navigator and bombardier worked in practiced silence, their hands flying across their consoles. The American Phantoms moved closer, their pilots' helmets visible in the starlight. It was a tense, silent ballet at 36,000 feet. Any miscalculation, any perceived hostile intent, could turn this demonstration into a bloodbath.
"Target acquired," the bombardier confirmed. "Bombing solution is set. We can release on your mark."
"Acknowledged," Anton replied. The secondary objective was complete. He held the course, flying directly over the center of the battle group. The primary objective was now met. Below them, a US carrier, a symbol of American power, had just been overflown by four Soviet strategic bombers that had, for all intents and purposes, just simulated its annihilation.
"Krechet flight, turn to heading three-zero-zero," Anton ordered. "Begin egress."
As one, the four Bisons banked gracefully, their massive wings catching the faint light as they turned back towards the Crimea. For a tense moment, the F-4s followed, sticking to them like glue. Then, as the bombers crossed the midway point of the Black Sea, the American fighters peeled off, their duty done. The game was over.
Landing back at Oktyabrskoye, the sense of relief was palpable. They had walked into the lion's den, rattled the cage, and walked out without a scratch. They had threaded the needle, achieving the 42% probability of success against the 58% chance of failure. Operation Red Tide had sent its message without spilling a drop of blood. It was a victory, but Anton knew how close they had come to disaster. It was a cold night in a Cold War that had just gotten a little bit hotter, all without a single shot being fired.
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