Operation Granite Breaker

Scenario Name: Operation Granite Breaker

Time and Date: July 21, 1970, 01:00:00 (Zulu)

Friendly Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Soviet Union
Bases of Operation:

Airbase: Dolon Air Base, Kazakh SSR, Soviet Union (50°32'00.0"N 79°11'00.0"E)

Order of Battle:

Aircraft:

2x 3M 'Bison-B' Strategic Bombers

Loadout (per aircraft): 2x FAB-9000M-54 GPB
Home Base: Dolon Air Base

Adversarial Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: People's Republic of China
Bases of Operation:

Military Installation: Subterranean Command and Control Bunker, near Hami, Xinjiang, China

Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):

Ground-Based Threats:

Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS):

S-75 Dvina (SA-2 Guideline) SAM Site: At least one battery is protecting the high-value facility, likely positioned on the approach from the north (Estimated location: 43.15° N, 93.60° E).
AAA: Multiple batteries of 100mm KS-19 anti-aircraft guns are expected to be dug into the hills surrounding the target coordinates.

Early Warning Radars:

P-14 (Tall King) Early Warning Radar: A long-range VHF radar is providing surveillance over the region, likely positioned east of the target to cover the Mongolian border (Estimated location: 43.00° N, 94.20° E).

Aircraft:

Shenyang J-6 (MiG-19) Interceptors: A squadron is based at Hami Airbase (42.8422° N, 93.6694° E) with the specific mission of defending the command bunker.

Mission & Objectives:

Geopolitical Situation:
A year after the bloody Sino-Soviet border clashes on Damansky Island, tensions remain exceptionally high. KGB intelligence, corroborated by satellite imagery, has identified the construction of a massive, deeply buried command and control bunker in the mountains near the city of Hami. This facility is assessed to be a new strategic headquarters for the People's Liberation Army, designed to withstand a nuclear attack and command forces in a war against the Soviet Union. The Soviet Politburo views the operational status of this bunker as an immediate and unacceptable threat. A decision has been made to conduct a preemptive strike using the largest conventional bombs in the Soviet arsenal, the FAB-9000M-54, in a mission designed to cause a geological-scale collapse, entombing the facility.
Friendly Mission:
You are to command a two-ship element of 3M 'Bison-B' bombers on a deep-penetration night strike. Your sole objective is to deliver four FAB-9000M-54 bombs onto a precise point on the mountain above the suspected location of the subterranean bunker. The mission requires a high-altitude approach to maximize the kinetic energy of the weapons upon impact. The goal is not just to crater the surface but to trigger a seismic event that will collapse the underground facility. This mission will operate on a Hi-Hi-Hi profile, with a 3150 nm strike radius and a cruise altitude of 36,000 ft.
Success Criteria:

Primary Objective: Deliver all four FAB-9000M-54 bombs onto the designated target point (Coordinates: 43.105° N, 93.525° E). A successful mission will be determined by the "Heavy Damage" status of the target location.
Secondary Objective: Neutralize the primary S-75 SAM site during your egress.
Constraint: Both aircraft must exit Chinese airspace. Losing one aircraft is acceptable if the primary objective is met.
Constraint: The strike must be completed during the hours of darkness (Day only Limited All-Weather capability for this loadout).

Operation Granite Breaker: Probability Assessment

Scenario Overview

Mission: Two Soviet 3M 'Bison-B' bombers conduct a high-altitude, night strike to deliver four FAB-9000M-54 bombs onto a subterranean command bunker near Hami, Xinjiang, China. The goal is to inflict "Heavy Damage" by collapsing the facility, then exit Chinese airspace with both aircraft.
Key Threats: S-75 Dvina (SA-2) SAM site, 100mm KS-19 AAA, P-14 (Tall King) early warning radar, and J-6 (MiG-19) interceptors.

Key Threats and Mission Factors

1. Early Warning and Detection

P-14 Tall King radar provides long-range surveillance, making undetected approach unlikely.
Night operations reduce visual detection but do not negate radar coverage.
Probability of undetected penetration: Very low; bombers will be detected as they approach the target area.

2. S-75 Dvina (SA-2) SAM Threat

The S-75 Dvina was highly effective against high-altitude bombers, with a historical shootdown rate of 7–10% per engagement for large bombers, and higher if multiple salvos are fired1 2.
Probability of at least one bomber being hit during ingress or egress: ~40% (for a two-bomber formation, with coordinated defense and ECM).

3. AAA and Interceptor Threat

100mm KS-19 AAA is effective at medium altitudes, but less so at 36,000 ft unless bombers descend for accuracy.
J-6 (MiG-19) interceptors are fast and can engage bombers, but their effectiveness at night is limited by radar and GCI capabilities of the era3.
Probability of successful engagement by interceptors: ~20% (night, high altitude, and bomber ECM reduce risk).

4. Bombing Accuracy and Bunker Destruction

FAB-9000M-54 bombs are among the largest conventional bombs, with significant blast effect, but are unguided. High-altitude release increases survivability but reduces accuracy.
Probability of achieving "Heavy Damage" to a deeply buried, hardened bunker: ~35% (due to the challenge of precisely hitting a small, hardened target and the limited penetration of conventional bombs against deep underground facilities4 5).
Probability of neutralizing the S-75 site during egress: ~30% (requires accurate targeting and surviving initial engagement).

5. Bomber Survivability and Egress

Probability both bombers exit Chinese airspace after the strike: ~55% (considering cumulative risks from SAMs, AAA, and interceptors).

Probability Table

Mission Phase / Objective	Probability (%)
Penetrate to target area with both bombers	60
Achieve "Heavy Damage" to bunker (all bombs on target)	35
Neutralize S-75 SAM site during egress	30
Both bombers exit Chinese airspace	55

Combined Full Mission Success

Probability of achieving all objectives (bunker destroyed, S-75 neutralized, both bombers return):

0.60×0.35×0.30×0.55≈0.0350.60 \times 0.35 \times 0.30 \times 0.55 \approx 0.0350.60×0.35×0.30×0.55≈0.035 (~3.5%)

Partial Success

Probability of destroying the bunker and returning at least one bomber, but failing to neutralize the S-75 site:
~15%

Failure

Probability of failing to destroy the bunker, losing both bombers, or suffering heavy losses:
~81.5%

Summary Table

Outcome Description	Probability (%)
Full Success (all objectives, both bombers return)	3.5
Partial Success (bunker destroyed, one bomber lost or S-75 survives)	15
Failure (bunker survives, both bombers lost, or major loss)	81.5

Key Points

Most likely outcome: The bomber force is detected, faces S-75 launches and possible J-6 interception, and may suffer losses or only partial target destruction.
Greatest risks: Early detection, effective SAM engagement, and the challenge of precision bombing against a deeply buried, hardened target.
Best practices for success:

Maintain strict electronic discipline and formation.
Time the approach to exploit any gaps in radar or interceptor coverage.
Prioritize accurate bomb delivery and rapid egress.

In summary:

Odds of full mission success: ~3.5%
Odds of partial success: ~15%
Odds of failure: ~81.5%

Operation Granite Breaker is an extremely high-risk, low-probability strike, with the main threats being robust Chinese air defenses and the inherent difficulty of destroying a modern underground command bunker with conventional munitions1 2 4 5.

1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-75_Dvina
2 https://www.eurasiantimes.com/shooting-down-a-dozen-b-52-bombers-meet-the-russian-missile/
3 https://www.historynet.com/mig-19-serve-north-vietnamese/
4 https://en.topwar.ru/257148-dostuchatsja-do-dna-granicy-vozmozhnogo-dlja-protivobunkernyh-boepripasov.html
5 https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-likely-using-upgraded-bombs-that-can-smash-underground-bunkers-2023-11

The air at Dolon Air Base had the cold, metallic taste of impending doom. On the windswept tarmac of the Kazakh SSR, two Myasishchev 3M 'Bison-B' bombers stood like monuments to a grim faith, their silver skins reflecting the harsh floodlights. It was 01:00 Zulu, July 21, 1970. Strapped in the cavernous bomb bays of each aircraft were two FAB-9000M-54s, the heaviest conventional bombs in the Soviet arsenal. They were not merely bombs; they were nine-ton steel behemoths, designed to break the granite spine of a mountain.

Major Alexsandr Volkov, commander of the lead bomber, Titan-1, stared out at the darkness that stretched eastward towards Xinjiang. The mission was codenamed "Operation Granite Breaker," a name that was both literal and brutally ambitious. A year after the bloody clashes on Damansky Island, KGB intelligence had pinpointed a new, deeply buried PLA command bunker near Hami—a subterranean fortress designed to command a war against the Soviet Union. Alexsandr’s mission was to deliver four of the "super bombs" onto a precise point on the mountain above it, to trigger a seismic event and entomb the facility forever.

The flight profile was a "Hi-Hi-Hi" strike, a long, exposed cruise at 36,000 feet. The intelligence briefing had been a litany of lethal threats: the long-range P-14 "Tall King" radar that would surely see them coming, the dug-in 100mm anti-aircraft batteries, the squadron of Shenyang J-6 interceptors at Hami, and, worst of all, the S-75 Dvina SAM site guarding the approach.

The final slide of the briefing had cast a pall of silence over the room. A 3.5% chance of full success. A staggering 81.5% probability of failure. The constraint—Both aircraft must exit Chinese airspace—felt like a cruel joke.

"The Politburo asks for miracles," his co-pilot, Dmitri, muttered, his voice tight over the intercom as they climbed into the night sky. "Today, we are the miracle workers."

For hours, Titan-1 and Titan-2 sailed through the stratosphere, two silver crucifixes against a sea of stars. The silence in the cockpit was a fragile thing, stretched taut with the anticipation of the inevitable.

"Contact," the electronic warfare officer announced, his voice flat. "P-14 Tall King. They see us."

The invisible shield of darkness was gone. They were now just targets, flying deeper into a web of defenses. Minutes later, the EWO’s voice sharpened. "SAM acquisition radar. We have a lock from the S-75 site."

"ECM on full," Alexsandr ordered, his heart hammering against his ribs. "Hold your course."

Far below, a fiery serpent ascended from the dark mountains. The SA-2 missile clawed its way towards them. Alexsandr threw the heavy bomber into a sickening bank, the airframe groaning. The missile detonated a thousand feet below their altitude, a brilliant, silent flash that rocked the aircraft with its shockwave.

But another was right behind it. "Missile inbound! Titan-2 is targeted!"

A desperate voice from the other bomber crackled over the radio. "We're hit! Starboard engines are gone! We're still flying, but losing altitude!"

"Press the attack!" Alexsandr roared, his own grief and fear channeled into a single, cold point of focus. The mission constraint allowed for one loss, provided the objective was met. "Deliver your payload!"

Through his bombsight, Alexsandr could see the target: not a building, not a bunker entrance, but a desolate patch of mountain designated by a set of coordinates. Hitting it from 36,000 feet, at night, with unguided bombs, was a task of impossible precision. At the same time, the sky filled with the angry streaks of J-6 interceptors rising to meet them.

"Bomb bay doors open!" Dmitri yelled.

Alexsandr fought the controls, the bomber vibrating as cannon shells from the interceptors stitched the air around them. He held the crosshairs steady on the aiming point, a confluence of topographical lines on his display.

"Bombs away!"

He felt the colossal lurch as eighteen tons of ordnance fell free. A moment later, he heard the strained voice of Titan-2's pilot. "Payload delivered. We are going down. For the Motherland!"

Alexsandr didn't look back. He banked his own aircraft hard, diving to escape the interceptors. He had no chance to target the SAM site on his egress; survival was the only objective now.

He never saw the impact, but the seismic sensors in Soviet listening posts registered it clearly. Four massive, near-simultaneous detonations that registered as a minor earthquake. The mountain, struck by 36 tons of high explosive, had broken. The granite had failed. The PLA’s command bunker was now a tomb.

Limping back into Soviet airspace, his fuselage riddled with holes and his fuel gauges nearing empty, Alexsandr Volkov was the sole survivor. He had achieved the primary objective, but at the cost of his wingman and a crew of his friends. It was not the 3.5% miracle of full success, but the bloody 15% outcome of partial success. The granite was broken, but so was his squadron.

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