Operation Damocles' Sword
Scenario Name: Operation Damocles' Sword
Time and Date: June 7, 1967, 03:00:00 (Zulu)
Friendly Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: Soviet Union
Bases of Operation:
Order of Battle:
Aircraft:
2x 3M 'Bison-B' Strategic Bombers
Loadout (per aircraft): 2x FAB-5000M-46 GPB 1
Home Base: Ayni Air Base
Adversarial Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: People's Republic of China
Bases of Operation:
Military Installation: Karasay-Karakax Strategic Tunnel and Underground Facility, Xinjiang, China.
Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):
Ground-Based Threats:
Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS):
S-75 Dvina (SA-2 Guideline) SAM Site: A battery is suspected of being hidden in the mountainous terrain guarding the approach to the valley (Estimated location: 37.85° N, 79.35° E).
AAA: Multiple positions of 57mm and 100mm anti-aircraft artillery are likely carved into the mountainsides overlooking the facility entrance.
Early Warning Radars:
P-12 (Spoon Rest) Early Warning Radar: A mobile radar unit is likely positioned on high ground to provide surveillance of the southern approaches (Estimated location: 37.70° N, 79.60° E).
Aircraft:
Shenyang J-6 (MiG-19) Interceptors: A detachment is likely on alert at a concealed airfield or a forward operating strip in the region, possibly Hotan Airbase (37.0381° N, 79.9644° E), to defend this critical site.
Mission & Objectives:
Geopolitical Situation:
The Six-Day War is raging in the Middle East, capturing global attention. Simultaneously, Sino-Soviet tensions have reached a boiling point. Premier Brezhnev's government has received alarming intelligence from a high-level source within the Chinese military: China, believing the Soviet Union to be distracted by the Arab-Israeli conflict, is preparing to move tactical nuclear weapons into a newly constructed, deeply buried underground facility in the Kunlun Mountains. This facility, accessible via a massive, hardened tunnel entrance, would give China a forward-basing capability that directly threatens Soviet Central Asia and the Baikonur Cosmodrome. Viewing this as an unacceptable strategic risk, the Politburo has authorized a preemptive and highly targeted strike. The objective is to use overwhelming conventional force to seal the tunnel entrance, entombing the facility and rendering it useless. The timing is critical, exploiting the world's focus on the Middle East to achieve the objective before Beijing can react.Friendly Mission:
You will command a two-aircraft element of 3M 'Bison-B' bombers on a high-risk, deep-penetration strike. Your mission is to deliver four FAB-5000M-46 "super bombs" directly onto the reinforced entrance of the Karasay-Karakax strategic tunnel. The mission requires ingress through treacherous mountain valleys to mask your approach from Chinese early warning radar. The success of the mission depends on a precise, coordinated attack that collapses the mountainside and seals the tunnel permanently.Success Criteria:
Primary Objective: Destroy the hardened tunnel entrance at the Karasay-Karakax facility (Coordinates: 37.785° N, 79.488° E). A successful strike will be registered as a "Destroyed" status on the target structure.
Secondary Objective: Avoid detection by the P-12 Early Warning Radar until you are past the main mountain range.
Constraint: Both bombers must exit Chinese airspace after weapon release.
Constraint: Minimize engagement with enemy interceptors; the mission prioritizes the destruction of the ground target over air-to-air combat.
Operation Damocles' Sword: Probability Assessment
Scenario Overview
Mission: Two Soviet 3M "Bison-B" strategic bombers conduct a high-risk, deep-penetration strike against the hardened tunnel entrance of the Karasay-Karakax strategic facility in the Kunlun Mountains, Xinjiang, China.
Objectives:
Destroy the tunnel entrance to seal the underground facility.
Avoid detection by the P-12 early warning radar until past the main mountain range.
Both bombers must exit Chinese airspace after weapon release.
Minimize engagement with enemy interceptors, prioritizing the ground target.
Key Threats and Mission Factors
Terrain and Radar: Mountainous terrain provides some masking for the approach, but the mobile P-12 radar unit on high ground is capable of early detection of high-altitude bombers.
Air Defenses:
S-75 Dvina (SA-2 Guideline) SAM battery likely positioned to cover the valley approach, posing a significant threat during ingress and egress.
Multiple 57mm and 100mm AAA positions embedded in the mountainsides increase risk during the attack run.
Interceptor Threat:
Shenyang J-6 (MiG-19) interceptors on alert at a concealed forward airfield can rapidly engage if bombers are detected.
Mission Complexity:
The mission requires precise navigation through treacherous mountain valleys to avoid early radar detection.
Coordinated delivery of four heavy FAB-5000M-46 bombs demands accuracy to collapse the tunnel entrance effectively.
Both bombers must survive and exit hostile airspace post-attack.
Probability Estimates
Combined Mission Success Probability
Probability both bombers survive SAM/AAA and exit:
0.40×0.45=0.180.40 \times 0.45 = 0.180.40×0.45=0.18 (18%)Probability of mission success (bombing success and both bombers exit):
0.50×0.18=0.090.50 \times 0.18 = 0.090.50×0.18=0.09 (9%)Weighted by probability of avoiding early radar detection:
0.09×0.35=0.03150.09 \times 0.35 = 0.03150.09×0.35=0.0315 (3.15%)Probability of mission failure:
1−0.0315=0.96851 - 0.0315 = 0.96851−0.0315=0.9685 (96.85%)
Summary Table
Analysis
The greatest challenge is avoiding early detection by the P-12 radar and surviving the dense SAM and AAA defenses in mountainous terrain.
The probability of successfully destroying the tunnel entrance is moderate due to the heavy bomb load but is limited by the difficulty of precision bombing in rugged terrain.
The risk from interceptors is significant, with limited chances to minimize engagement given the alert status of J-6 fighters.
The overall mission success odds are low (around 3%), reflecting the high-risk nature of deep-penetration strikes against well-defended, hardened targets in difficult terrain.
The mission prioritizes target destruction over air combat, but survival and safe egress of both bombers are critical constraints that further reduce success probability.
In conclusion: Operation Damocles' Sword is an extremely hazardous mission with a low probability of full success due to formidable Chinese air defenses, challenging terrain, and the precision required to seal the strategic tunnel facility effectively.
The glow of the instrument panels in the cockpit of Volga-1 was the only source of light, a universe of steady green against the profound blackness of the stratosphere. It was 03:00 Zulu on June 7, 1967. Cruising at 36,000 feet, Colonel Nikolai Sokolov guided his 3M 'Bison-B' bomber east, a solitary silver dart in the empty night. Far below and to his right, Volga-2 maintained its station. Each aircraft was a bearer of immense force, carrying two FAB-5000M-46 "super bombs," their purpose not just to strike, but to trigger an avalanche.
The mission, codenamed "Damocles' Sword," was a desperate gambit. The world was fixated on the Middle East, where the Six-Day War consumed the headlines. Under this global smokescreen, the Politburo had ordered a preemptive strike. Alarming intelligence pointed to China preparing to arm a new, deeply buried nuclear facility in the Kunlun Mountains. The Karasay-Karakax strategic tunnel was a dagger aimed at the heart of Soviet Central Asia, and Nikolai’s mission was to shatter it.
The briefing at Ayni Air Base had presented a clinical, almost abstract path to annihilation. The mission was a "Hi-Hi-Hi" profile—a 3,150-nautical-mile journey conducted entirely at high altitude. The treacherous valley-hugging of other missions was replaced by the stark vulnerability of total exposure. The mission's secondary objective—to avoid the P-12 "Spoon Rest" radar—was dismissed by the crews as black humor. At their altitude, they would be visible for hundreds of miles.
The greatest threat was the S-75 Dvina, the infamous SA-2 Guideline missile, for which they were a perfect, high-altitude target. The intelligence officer didn't mince words. The probability of both aircraft surviving the SAMs, destroying the target with an unguided bomb release from maximum range, and exiting Chinese airspace was a statistical ghost, hovering near 3%. In reality, for this specific profile, everyone in the room knew the odds were far worse. A 96.8% chance of failure felt less like a risk assessment and more like a certainty.
"Five hundred kilometers to the hostile detection line," the navigator's voice announced, crisp and professional over the intercom. The long, quiet cruise was over. Now, they were simply waiting for the enemy to open its eyes.
The call came precisely when expected. "I have it," the electronic warfare officer stated, his voice devoid of surprise. "P-12 is sweeping. We are painted." A few tense minutes passed. "Here it comes. Fire control lock. Fan Song radar. They're guiding missiles."
"Hold your course," Nikolai ordered, his knuckles white on the yoke. "Activate countermeasures."
Far below, from the dark, jagged peaks of the Kunlun range, fiery stars began to ascend. They were beautiful and terrifying, the rocket motors of the SA-2s pushing them towards the two bombers at more than three times the speed of sound.
"Missile launch! Multiple contacts!"
Nikolai threw the huge aircraft into a sickening, banking dive, the airframe screaming in protest. A missile detonated a thousand feet below, its warhead filling the sky with a brilliant flash and a cloud of deadly shrapnel. The Bison shuddered as metal fragments peppered its underside.
Then came the frantic call from his wingman. "Volga-2 is hit! Direct hit! We're losing—" The transmission dissolved into a shriek of static.
Nikolai looked to his right. Volga-2 was gone. Not falling, not burning, but simply gone, vaporized in a direct impact, its ten-ton bomb load contributing to its own cataclysmic demise. They were alone, a wounded bomber flying into the heart of the world's most formidable air defenses.
There was no retreat. He leveled the wings, his eyes glued to the bombing computer. The target—a single, hardened tunnel entrance—was an impossibly small point on the map, a target they were to hit from over six miles up and from the maximum possible release range. It was like throwing a dart at a keyhole from across a field in a hurricane.
"On the final run," he announced, his voice a low growl. "Bomb bay doors open."
Another SA-2 clawed its way towards them. This time, the detonation was closer, off the port wing. The explosion slammed the bomber sideways, shattering the cockpit glass and killing the inboard engine. Warning lights flared red across the console. The aircraft yawed violently, but Nikolai wrestled it back onto the bombing line.
"Steady… steady… Release now!"
He felt the profound lurch as the two FAB-5000s were unshackled, beginning their long, silent descent. He didn't wait to see the outcome. He banked the crippled bomber hard to the west, diving in a desperate bid for survival.
He never saw the bombs hit. He never knew if he had succeeded. His entire focus was on keeping his broken aircraft in the air. J-6 interceptors, vectored to his last known position, rose to meet him, but the damage from the SAMs had forced him into a descent that took him below their optimal intercept path. He fled Chinese airspace a few thousand feet above the desolate mountain peaks, a ghost escaping his own tomb.
Limping back to Ayni Air Base on three engines, his fuselage riddled with holes, Nikolai Sokolov was a lone survivor. He had failed the mission's constraint: both bombers had not returned. And he could not confirm he had met the primary objective. He had simply dropped two bombs into a valley and run for his life. He had flown a mission with a 97% chance of failure, and the result felt exactly like it. The sword had been dropped, but whether it had struck its mark or simply vanished into the abyss, he would never know.
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