Operation Atlantic Reach
Scenario Name: Operation Atlantic Reach
Time and Date: May 10, 1969, 21:00:00 (Zulu)
Friendly Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: Soviet Union
Bases of Operation:
Airbase: Olenya Air Base, Kola Peninsula, Soviet Union (68.1550° N, 33.4606° E)
Order of Battle:
Aircraft:
4x 3MN-1 'Bison-B' Bombers
Loadout (per aircraft): 10x FAB-500M-54 GPB, Long-Range 1
Home Base: Olenya Air Base
Adversarial Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: United States / Portugal (NATO)
Bases of Operation:
Airbase: Lajes Field, Azores, Portugal (38.7619° N, 27.0908° W)
Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):
Land-Based Threats:
Target: The main runway, fuel depot, and maritime patrol aircraft aprons at Lajes Field.
Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS):
M163 VADS (Vulcan Air Defense System): A limited number of Vulcan gun systems are expected to provide point defense for the airfield.
Early Warning Radars:
AN/FPS-20 Surveillance Radar: Providing air surveillance for the Azores island group.
Aircraft:
F-102 Delta Dagger: A detachment from the US Air Force Air Defense Command is on alert at Lajes Field for air defense of the islands.
Mission & Objectives:
Geopolitical Situation:
In a hypothetical escalation of the Cold War, the Soviet Union has decided to demonstrate its capability to project conventional airpower deep into the Atlantic, targeting the critical NATO logistical and anti-submarine warfare (ASW) hub at Lajes Field in the Azores. The base is a vital stepping stone for US reinforcements to Europe and a key base for maritime patrol aircraft that threaten the Soviet submarine fleet. By executing a surprise, long-range conventional strike, the Soviet High Command aims to prove that no NATO base is safe, forcing the alliance to divert resources to defend its rear areas.Friendly Mission:
You are the commander of a four-ship flight of 3MN-1 'Bison-B' bombers tasked with an exceptionally long-range strike. Your mission is to fly from the Kola Peninsula, across the Norwegian Sea, and deep into the Atlantic to attack Lajes Field. Adhering to the specified Hi-Hi-Hi flight profile for a 3250 nm strike radius, you will cruise at 36,000 ft to conserve fuel. 2 Your objective is to use your payload of FAB-500M-54 bombs to damage the runway and destroy fuel storage and parked ASW aircraft, temporarily crippling the base's operational capability.Success Criteria:
Primary Objective: Render the main runway at Lajes Field (Coordinates: 38.7619° N, 27.0908° W) inoperable.
Secondary Objective: Destroy the main fuel depot at Lajes Field.
Constraint: This is a one-way mission to a recovery base in Cuba. The primary goal is target destruction, not return to home base.
Constraint: Minimize engagement with enemy interceptors. The mission relies on surprise and attacking from an unexpected vector.
Operation Atlantic Reach: Probability Assessment
Scenario Overview
Mission: Four Soviet 3MN-1 'Bison-B' bombers conduct a long-range, high-altitude strike on Lajes Field, Azores, aiming to render the main runway inoperable and destroy the main fuel depot, while minimizing engagement with F-102 Delta Dagger interceptors.
Adversary: Lajes Field is defended by AN/FPS-20 early warning radar, a detachment of F-102 Delta Daggers, and limited M163 Vulcan point defenses.
Key Threats and Mission Factors
1. Early Detection and Interception
AN/FPS-20 radar provides long-range surveillance, making undetected approach unlikely, even from an unexpected vector.
F-102 Delta Dagger interceptors are on alert and capable of rapid scramble, with a typical airborne time of less than five minutes after detection1.
The F-102 was designed to intercept high-altitude bombers like the Bison-B and was effective in this role, though its radar and missile systems were less capable at night or in poor weather12.
The long overwater approach and the rarity of such a deep-penetration raid may provide some element of surprise, but the odds of avoiding interception entirely are low.
2. SAM and AAA Threats
M163 VADS provides only limited point defense, effective mainly against low-flying or slow-moving targets during the final attack run.
At 36,000 ft, the bombers are largely immune to Vulcan fire except during bomb release or if forced to descend.
3. Bombing Effectiveness
FAB-500M-54 bombs are 500 kg high-explosive, general-purpose bombs with a large blast and fragmentation radius, effective against runways, fuel depots, and parked aircraft3456.
A single Bison-B can deliver 10 bombs; a four-ship strike delivers 40 bombs, increasing the probability of cratering the runway and destroying fuel storage if at least two bombers reach the release point.
High-altitude, unguided bombing reduces accuracy, but the area nature of the targets and the volume of ordnance compensate for this limitation.
4. Bomber Survivability
The main risks are from F-102 interceptors, which are optimized for high-altitude bomber interception and can engage with radar-guided missiles127.
Defensive guns on the Bison-B are largely ineffective against supersonic interceptors.
The mission profile is one-way to Cuba, so egress over hostile territory is not a factor.
Probability Breakdown
Combined Full Mission Success
Probability of achieving all objectives (runway inoperable, fuel depot destroyed, minimal F-102 engagement):
0.55×0.70×0.60×0.40≈0.090.55 \times 0.70 \times 0.60 \times 0.40 \approx 0.090.55×0.70×0.60×0.40≈0.09 (~9%)
Partial Success
Probability of destroying the runway or fuel depot, but with higher losses or F-102 engagement:
~35%
Failure
Probability of failing to destroy the runway, losing most of the bombers, or suffering heavy F-102 engagement:
~56%
Summary Table
Key Points
Most likely outcome: The bomber force is detected early, faces F-102 interception, and may suffer losses, but has a fair chance of reaching the target and inflicting significant damage on the runway and fuel depot.
Greatest risks: Early detection by AN/FPS-20 radar, rapid F-102 Delta Dagger interception, and the challenge of precision bombing at night with unguided munitions.
Best practices for success:
Maintain strict formation and electronic discipline.
Exploit the element of surprise by approaching from an unexpected vector.
Prioritize accurate bomb delivery and rapid egress to the recovery base.
In summary:
Odds of full mission success: ~9%
Odds of partial success: ~35%
Odds of failure: ~56%
Operation Atlantic Reach is a high-risk, moderate-reward strike, with the main threats being robust NATO air defenses and the inherent difficulty of achieving overwhelming destruction with conventional bombs in a heavily defended, remote environment123456.
https://hushkit.net/2023/04/25/interview-with-convair-f-102-delta-dagger-pilot/
http://www.fiddlersgreen.net/models/aircraft/Convair-F102.html
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve15p2/d124
https://www.militaryfactory.com/aircraft/detail.php?aircraft_id=157%2F
The cold at Olenya Air Base was a physical entity, a presence that seeped through the thickest flight suits and settled in a man’s bones. It was a fitting atmosphere for a mission to the end of the world. Major Ivan Kuznetsov, commander of the 3MN-1 'Bison-B' bomber Kondor-1, watched the ground crews complete their final checks under the ghostly twilight of the polar evening on May 10, 1969. His aircraft, and the three others in his flight, were laden with long-range fuel tanks and ten FAB-500M-54 bombs each. Their destination was not on any return flight plan.
The mission, Operation Atlantic Reach, was a statement of strategic will written in high explosives. In an escalation of the Cold War, they were to fly an unbelievable 3,250 nautical miles, a great circle route from the Kola Peninsula, across the Norwegian Sea, and deep into the Atlantic. Their target was the vital NATO hub at Lajes Field in the Azores. They were to cripple it, proving to the Americans that no base was beyond the reach of the Soviet Union's long arm. The constraint was the mission's most chilling feature: this was a one-way trip. Their recovery base was in Cuba. There was no going home.
The briefing had been a grim affair. The primary threats were the AN/FPS-20 surveillance radar that would undoubtedly see them coming, and a detachment of F-102 Delta Dagger interceptors waiting at Lajes. The mission analysts, with their cold, dispassionate charts, gave them a 9% chance of full success. The probability of failure—losing most of the force and failing to destroy the targets—was a staggering 56%.
"They don't expect us to survive, Comrade Major," his co-pilot, a young, stoic man named Yuri, had said. "They only expect us to succeed."
Now, climbing to their cruising altitude of 36,000 feet, Ivan felt the profound truth of those words. For hours, they were four silver ghosts sailing through the stratosphere, the curve of the Earth a pale, ethereal line below. The monotony of the flight was a heavy blanket, punctuated only by the steady hum of the engines and the crackle of fuel reports between the four bombers. They were utterly alone, a tiny island of Soviet steel in a vast, hostile sea of sky.
The first sign that their lonely journey was nearing its violent conclusion came from the electronic warfare officer. "Contact. Search radar. Bearing two-one-zero. It's the AN/FPS-20 at Lajes. They see us."
The silence was broken. Across the Atlantic, on a volcanic island, klaxons were sounding. American pilots were scrambling.
"Hold your course," Ivan ordered, his voice a mask of calm. "Maximum power to the jammers."
Minutes later, the EWO’s voice was sharp with urgency. "Bandits! Multiple contacts scrambling from Lajes! They're climbing fast. Delta Daggers."
Far below, fiery pinpricks ascended, resolving into the sleek, triangular shapes of the F-102s. They were purpose-built bomber-killers, and they rose to meet the Bisons with terrifying speed.
"They're forming up for an attack run," Yuri reported, his eyes glued to the radar scope.
The sky erupted. The F-102s didn't waste time with cannons. They launched their radar-guided missiles from standoff range. A brilliant flash tore the night apart as Kondor-3, flying on their starboard wing, was struck directly. The bomber, with its full load of fuel and bombs, simply ceased to exist in a blinding, silent detonation.
"Evasive maneuvers!" Ivan roared, throwing the heavy bomber into a banking turn. Another missile shrieked past, narrowly missing Kondor-4. The sky was a lethal web of smoke trails and explosions. The American interceptors were relentless, pressing their attack. Kondor-2 took a hit to its port engines, trailing fire but still flying. The mission was already failing by the numbers.
But they were through the initial screen. Below them lay the island of Terceira, a dark shape in the ocean, with the welcoming lights of Lajes Field a beacon for their destruction.
"Target in sight!" Ivan yelled, leveling the wings. "Ignore the fighters! Focus on the run!"
He could see the long, main runway, the squat shapes of the fuel depot, and the parked maritime patrol aircraft on the aprons. He lined up his bombsight on the runway's threshold.
"Bomb bay doors open!"
The remaining F-102s, joined by the angry chatter of Vulcan anti-aircraft guns from the ground, threw everything they had at the two surviving bombers. The airframe of Kondor-1 shuddered as cannon shells ripped through its fuselage.
"Steady... steady..." Ivan murmured, fighting to keep the crosshairs stable. "Bombs away!"
The bomber leaped upwards as its payload fell free. A moment later, he heard the call from the damaged Kondor-2. "Bombs away!"
Ivan banked the crippled bomber hard to the south, towards the vast, dark expanse of the Atlantic and the faint, desperate hope of Cuba. He looked back one last time. The runway at Lajes Field was erupting in a string of massive explosions, great fountains of earth and fire that tore it apart. A colossal secondary fireball blossomed from the fuel depot, turning night into a hellish day.
They had done it. They had reached across the ocean and delivered a devastating blow. It was not the 9% miracle, but the 35% partial success. The primary objective was met. But as Ivan flew his battered, lonely bomber towards an uncertain dawn, with the fate of his last wingman unknown, the victory felt as empty and as cold as the endless ocean below.
Comments
Post a Comment