Operation Quiet Fury

Scenario Name: Operation Quiet Fury

Time and Date: June 15, 1978, 12:00:00 (Zulu)

Friendly Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: United States
Bases of Operation:

Airbase: Naval Air Station Keflavik, Iceland (63.9850° N, 22.6056° W)
Satellite Ground Station: Pine Gap, Australia (23.7972° S, 133.7347° E)

Order of Battle:

Space Assets:

1x Aquacade SIGINT Satellite (OPS 8790) 11

Loadout: Generic Satellite SIGINT package. 22
Orbit: Actively providing SIGINT coverage over the North Atlantic.

Aircraft (Player Controlled):

2x P-3C Orion

Loadout (per aircraft): 8x Mk.46 Torpedoes, 4x AGM-84A Harpoon, Full sonobuoy complement
Home Base: NAS Keflavik

Adversarial Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Soviet Union
Bases of Operation:

Naval Base: Severomorsk, Kola Peninsula, USSR (69.0681° N, 33.4139° E)

Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):

Naval Assets:

1x Kara-class Cruiser (Project 1134B Berkut-B): Leading the surface action group.
1x Krivak I-class Frigate (Project 1135 Burevestnik): ASW escort.
1x Kashin-class Destroyer (Project 61): Air defense escort.
1x Victor II-class SSN (Project 671RT): Suspected to be operating as a covert escort for the surface group.
Initial Location of SAG: Based on SIGINT hits, the group is believed to be entering the Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) gap (Approximate starting location: 68.5° N, 15.0° W).

Mission & Objectives:

Geopolitical Situation:
The Aquacade SIGINT satellite (OPS 8790), in its orbit over the North Atlantic, has detected a surge of unusual high-frequency communications consistent with a Soviet Northern Fleet surface action group (SAG) departing Severomorsk. 3333 The electronic intelligence suggests the group is not on a routine patrol and is heading towards the strategically critical GIUK gap. NATO naval command is concerned the group's mission may be to test response times or provide cover for a ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) heading into the Atlantic bastion. A P-3C Orion flight from NAS Keflavik is being scrambled to investigate.
Friendly Mission:
You are in command of a two-ship flight of P-3C Orions. Your mission is to act on the initial intelligence provided by the Aquacade satellite. You must locate the Soviet surface action group, covertly shadow it, and build a complete tactical picture of the flotilla. This includes identifying every surface combatant, monitoring their emissions, and attempting to detect the suspected nuclear-powered attack submarine escort. Your primary role is intelligence gathering, not direct confrontation.
Success Criteria:

Primary Objective: Positively identify and track all surface vessels in the Soviet task group.
Secondary Objective: Detect and classify the suspected Victor II-class submarine.
Constraint: Remain outside the engagement range of the Soviet task group's air defense systems.
Constraint: Do not take any hostile action (e.g., dropping torpedoes, launching Harpoons) unless fired upon first. Your mission is surveillance.

Operation Quiet Fury: Probability Assessment

Scenario Overview

Mission: Two P-3C Orions from NAS Keflavik must locate, identify, and covertly track a Soviet surface action group (SAG) entering the GIUK gap, and attempt to detect a Victor II-class SSN, all while remaining outside the engagement range of Soviet air defenses and taking no hostile action.
Intelligence Support: The Aquacade SIGINT satellite (OPS 8790) provides initial detection and ongoing electronic intelligence coverage1 2.

Key Threats and Mission Factors

1. SIGINT and Initial Detection

Aquacade Satellite Capabilities: The Aquacade (Rhyolite) satellites were designed to intercept a wide range of Soviet communications, including high-frequency naval transmissions, and could provide near-real-time cueing to NATO forces1 2 3.
Probability of initial detection and cueing: ~95%

The satellite’s coverage and the distinctive communications surge make it highly likely the SAG’s position and movement are detected and relayed to the P-3C crews.

2. P-3C Orion Surveillance and ASW Effectiveness

Surface Surveillance: The P-3C Orion, equipped with advanced radar, ESM, and visual sensors, is highly effective at identifying and tracking surface combatants, especially in open ocean conditions4 5 6.
Probability of positively identifying and tracking all surface vessels: ~90%

The P-3C’s radar and ESM can classify and track the Kara, Krivak, and Kashin-class ships from well outside their air defense engagement envelopes.

3. Air Defense Threat Envelope

Kara-class Cruiser: Equipped with SA-N-3 Goblet SAMs (range ~25–30 km) and Osa-M (SA-N-4) point defense missiles (range ~15 km)7 8.
Kashin-class Destroyer: Armed with SA-N-1 Goa SAMs (range ~15–22 km)9 10 11.
Krivak I-class Frigate: Only close-range air defense (Osa-M/SA-N-4, ~12 km), no area defense12 13.
Probability of remaining outside engagement range: ~85%

The P-3C’s sensors allow standoff surveillance, but weather, sea state, or aggressive Soviet maneuvering could force closer approaches.

4. Submarine Detection

Victor II-class SSN: Designed for quiet operation, but P-3C Orions are equipped with sonobuoys, magnetic anomaly detectors (MAD), and advanced acoustic processors4 5 14.
Probability of detecting and classifying the Victor II: ~50%

Detection depends on the submarine’s speed, depth, and environmental conditions. If the Victor II is actively screening the SAG or transiting at higher speed, detection odds improve; if it is running silent, odds decrease.

5. Operational Constraints

No hostile action unless fired upon: The mission is strictly surveillance, reducing risk of escalation.
Risk of detection by Soviet ESM: P-3C emissions (radar, radio) could be detected, but EMCON procedures and standoff tactics minimize this risk.

Probability Table

Mission Phase / Objective	Probability (%)
Initial detection/cueing by Aquacade	95
Identify and track all surface vessels	90
Remain outside SAG air defense engagement range	85
Detect/classify Victor II-class SSN	50
Complete mission with no hostile engagement	95

Combined Full Mission Success

Probability of achieving all objectives (surface group tracked, Victor II detected, no hostile engagement, outside air defense range):

0.95×0.90×0.85×0.50×0.95≈0.350.95 \times 0.90 \times 0.85 \times 0.50 \times 0.95 \approx 0.350.95×0.90×0.85×0.50×0.95≈0.35 (~35%)

Partial Success

Probability of tracking the surface group and remaining undetected, but failing to detect the Victor II: ~45%

Failure

Probability of failing to track the SAG, being forced inside air defense range, or being detected/engaged: ~20%

Summary Table

Outcome Description	Probability (%)
Full Success (all objectives, no hostile engagement)	35
Partial Success (surface group tracked, Victor II not found)	45
Failure (major objective missed or engagement occurs)	20

Key Points

Most likely outcome: The P-3C Orions, guided by Aquacade SIGINT, successfully locate and track the Soviet surface group from standoff range, but may or may not detect the Victor II-class submarine.
Risks: The main risks are environmental (weather, sea state), aggressive Soviet maneuvering, and the inherent difficulty of detecting a quiet SSN in open ocean.
Best practices for success:

Maintain strict EMCON and standoff surveillance.
Use passive sensors and sonobuoys to maximize submarine detection odds.
Avoid any approach within 20–25 km of the SAG to stay outside SAM engagement envelopes.

In summary:

Odds of full mission success: ~35%
Odds of partial success: ~45%
Odds of failure: ~20%

Operation Quiet Fury is a moderate-risk, intelligence-driven surveillance mission, with the main challenge being the detection of the Victor II-class submarine and the need to avoid triggering a hostile response.

References:
1 2 7 4 5 6 8 12 13 9 10 14 11

The low, persistent drone of the four Allison turboprops was the sound of monotony, a constant companion in the vast, grey emptiness of the North Atlantic. Inside the cramped fuselage of the P-3C Orion, callsign "Voodoo One," Lieutenant Commander Jack "Mac" MacMillan stared at the radar screen, its slow, green sweep a hypnotic metronome counting off the endless miles of empty ocean. It was 12:00 Zulu, June 15, 1978, and they were hunting.

Their quarry was a ghost, conjured from the ether by a satellite named Aquacade, a silent sentinel in a high orbit thousands of miles above. The message, relayed from the ground station at Pine Gap, Australia, had been concise: a Soviet Northern Fleet Surface Action Group (SAG) had surged from Severomorsk and was making for the GIUK gap. The unusual communications pattern suggested this was no routine patrol.

"Anything on ESM?" Mac asked, his voice a calm counterpoint to the hum of the electronics that filled their world.

"Just the usual chatter, Skipper," replied the Electronic Warfare Officer. "But Pine Gap was firm. They're out here."

Operation Quiet Fury. The name was apt. Their mission was not to fight, but to find. To shadow, identify, and build a complete tactical picture of the Soviet force, including a suspected Victor II-class nuclear attack submarine running silent as a covert escort. They were to be a persistent, unseen eye, gathering intelligence without provoking a response. The mission analysis gave them a 35% chance of finding everything. A 45% chance of finding the surface ships but missing the sub. Mac knew the real challenge was finding the ghost in the machine.

For two hours, they flew their search pattern, a lonely vigil in the sky. Then, a new tone chirped from the ESM console.

"Got it, Skipper! Bearing zero-three-zero. Classic Soviet search radar emissions. It's a 'Top Sail' radar... that's the Kara-class cruiser."

The game was afoot. Mac banked the Orion, keeping a respectful distance. The Kara was the beast, armed with SA-N-3 Goblet missiles that could reach out 30 kilometers. Their job was to watch, not to die.

"Let's get a visual," Mac said. The Orion descended, skimming the cloud base. Through the powerful optics of the periscope camera, the Soviet fleet resolved from fuzzy blips into sharp, grey silhouettes.

"Confirm Kara-class cruiser, lead vessel," the sensor operator reported. "Followed by... a Kashin-class destroyer, and a Krivak-class frigate on ASW screen. That's the whole surface group."

The primary objective was complete. But the secondary, the real prize, remained hidden beneath the waves.

"Alright, people," Mac said, his voice lowering, becoming more intense. "Let's go fishing. Deploy the sonobuoy pattern."

From the belly of the Orion, a series of long, thin cylinders dropped into the sea, creating a wide, invisible net of listening devices. On board, the acoustic sensor operators leaned into their consoles, tuning out the cacophony of the ocean—the songs of whales, the groans of ice, the drone of merchant ships—listening for the one sound that mattered: the faint, mechanical heartbeat of a nuclear submarine.

Hours passed. The sun began its slow descent, painting the clouds in hues of orange and purple. The Soviet fleet plowed steadily onward, oblivious to the hunters circling high above.

"I've got something," one of the acoustic operators said, his voice barely a whisper. "On buoy seven. Very faint. Propeller cavitation, but it's... quiet. Too quiet for a diesel boat."

The control room went still. All eyes were on the waterfall display, watching the faint, spectral lines that represented the sound. "He's deep," Mac murmured. "Running silent, trying to hide under the surface layer."

This was the moment. The Victor II was a quiet submarine, but it wasn't silent. Now they had a ghost of a trail.

"Bring us around," Mac ordered. "Low and slow. Let's see if we can wake him up with the MAD."

The Magnetic Anomaly Detector, a long boom extending from the Orion's tail, was a short-range, high-risk tool. It meant flying directly over the suspected contact. As they approached the position, the air in the cockpit grew thick with tension. They were deliberately placing themselves in the submarine's immediate vicinity.

The needle on the MAD display twitched, then jumped violently.

"MADMAN! MADMAN!" the operator yelled, the traditional call for a positive contact. "We have a submerged metallic object! Right under us!"

"Classify it," Mac snapped.

The acoustic operator, cross-referencing the faint signature with their library of Soviet naval sounds, looked up, his eyes wide. "Signature matches. It's a Victor II-class, Skipper. No doubt about it."

A wave of quiet triumph washed through the aircraft. They had found the ghost. They had the complete picture. For another hour, they shadowed the force, plotting its course, speed, and disposition, feeding the priceless intelligence back to NATO command. Their job was done.

As Voodoo One banked away, turning west towards the cold, welcoming lights of Keflavik, Mac looked back at the dark ocean. The Soviet fleet was now just a cluster of receding lights, unaware that their shield had been pierced, their quiet fury exposed. No shots were fired, no missiles launched, but in the silent, invisible battle of the Cold War, a decisive victory had just been won.

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