Operation Long Arm
Scenario Name: Operation Long Arm
Time and Date: March 12, 1975, 22:00:00 (Zulu)
Friendly Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: Soviet Union
Bases of Operation:
Airbase: Ukrainka Air Base, Amur Oblast, Russian SFSR (51.1717° N, 128.4600° E) - (Tanker and Bomber Base)
Order of Battle:
Aircraft (Player Controlled):
2x 3M 'Bison-B' Tankers
Loadout: Tanker (Air Refueling)
Home Base: Ukrainka Air Base
Aircraft (AI Controlled Strike Package):
4x Tu-95K 'Bear-C' Strategic Bombers
Loadout (per aircraft): 1x Kh-20M (AS-3 Kangaroo) stand-off missile
Home Base: Ukrainka Air Base
Adversarial Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: United States Navy
Bases of Operation:
Naval Base: Naval Base Guam, Apra Harbor (13.4443° N, 144.6539° E)
Airbase: Andersen Air Force Base, Guam (13.5844° N, 144.9294° E)
Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):
Naval Assets:
Kitty Hawk-class Aircraft Carrier, USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63): Target of the 'Bear' strike package. Operating in the Philippine Sea. (Approximate starting location: 20.5° N, 136.0° E)
Belknap-class Cruiser, USS Sterett (CG-31): Providing AAW escort for the carrier.
Leahy-class Cruiser, USS Gridley (CG-21): Providing AAW escort for the carrier.
Knox-class Frigates: At least two frigates providing ASW and point defense.
Aircraft:
F-4J Phantom II: Multiple squadrons aboard the USS Kitty Hawk, will form a Combat Air Patrol (CAP) around the carrier group.
E-2B Hawkeye: AEW&C aircraft aboard the USS Kitty Hawk, providing long-range air surveillance.
Mission & Objectives:
Geopolitical Situation:
Following the fall of South Vietnam, tensions in the Pacific are high. The United States has reinforced its naval presence in the Philippine Sea to reassure allies and deter further communist expansion. The USS Kitty Hawk carrier battle group is conducting freedom of navigation exercises, which the Soviet Union sees as a direct provocation. In response, Soviet Long Range Aviation has been tasked with a significant show of force. A flight of Tu-95 'Bear' bombers will execute a mock cruise missile strike on the carrier group from outside its defensive perimeter. Due to the extreme distance, the mission is impossible without aerial refueling. A pair of 3M 'Bison-B' tankers are critical to the success of this long-range power projection.Friendly Mission:
You are in command of two 3M 'Bison-B' tankers. Your mission is to fly a 3370 nm tanker mission profile to a designated rendezvous point over the Pacific Ocean. You will loiter at this point and wait for a flight of four Tu-95 'Bear' bombers. You must successfully refuel all four bombers, enabling them to continue on to their target. Your mission is purely support, but it is the critical enabler for the entire operation.Success Criteria:
Primary Objective: Successfully offload fuel to all four Tu-95 'Bear' bombers at the primary refueling track. (Rendezvous Point Coordinates: 40.0° N, 148.5° E).
Secondary Objective: Maintain electronic silence until the rendezvous is initiated.
Constraint: Both of your tanker aircraft must return safely to Ukrainka Air Base.
Constraint: Avoid all contact with adversarial fighter aircraft. Your flight path is designed to keep you outside the un-refueled combat radius of the carrier's F-4J squadrons.
Operation Long Arm: Probability Assessment
Scenario Overview
Mission: Two 3M 'Bison-B' tankers must rendezvous with and refuel four Tu-95K 'Bear-C' bombers at a remote Pacific location, then return both tankers safely to base, all while maintaining electronic silence and avoiding adversary contact.
Key Constraints: No tanker losses, no adversary fighter contact, and strict EMCON until rendezvous.
Key Threats and Mission Factors
1. Detection and Interception Risk
The refueling track is deliberately positioned outside the unrefueled combat radius of the USS Kitty Hawk’s F-4J Phantoms, minimizing the risk of interception.
E-2B Hawkeye AEW&C aircraft provide long-range surveillance, but the vastness of the Pacific and the tankers’ EMCON posture make detection unlikely unless the carrier group moves north or launches extended-range patrols.
The main risk arises if the carrier group unexpectedly shifts position or if a long-range CAP is launched, which could bring F-4Js into contact with the tankers.
2. Refueling Operations
Refueling four Tu-95s with two tankers is well within the operational capability of the 3M 'Bison-B', provided the rendezvous is executed efficiently and without delay.
Weather, navigation errors, or technical malfunctions could disrupt the refueling, but these are low-probability events given peacetime conditions and experienced crews.
3. EMCON and Evasion
Maintaining strict electronic silence until rendezvous greatly reduces the chance of detection by US ELINT or AEW assets.
The flight path and timing are designed to avoid known US patrol patterns and radar coverage.
4. Return to Base
After refueling, both tankers must return to Ukrainka Air Base. The return leg is less risky, as the tankers can adjust their route to avoid any detected threats.
Probability Breakdown
Combined Full Mission Success
Probability of achieving all objectives:
0.90×0.95×0.95×0.90×0.90≈0.660.90 \times 0.95 \times 0.95 \times 0.90 \times 0.90 \approx 0.660.90×0.95×0.95×0.90×0.90≈0.66 (~66%)
Partial Success
Probability of refueling at least three Tu-95s and returning both tankers, but with minor EMCON or navigation lapses:
~25%
Failure
Probability of failing to refuel all bombers, losing a tanker, or being detected/intercepted:
~9%
Summary Table
Key Points
Most likely outcome: The tankers complete the rendezvous and refueling undetected, and both return safely to base, enabling the Tu-95 strike package to proceed.
Risks: The main threats are unexpected US carrier movement, long-range CAP, or technical issues during refueling. These are mitigated by careful planning, EMCON, and route selection.
Best practices for success:
Maintain strict EMCON until rendezvous.
Adhere to the planned flight path and timing.
Abort or divert if any adversary aircraft are detected approaching the refueling area.
In summary:
Odds of full mission success: ~66%
Odds of partial success: ~25%
Odds of failure: ~9%
Operation Long Arm is a moderate-risk, high-reward support mission, with success hinging on disciplined execution and the ability to avoid adversary detection in the vast Pacific theater.
The wind that scoured Ukrainka Air Base carried the biting chill of the Amur Oblast, a wind that felt like it had travelled across a thousand miles of frozen taiga just to find them. It was 22:00 Zulu, March 12, 1975. Major Ivan Morozov watched the ground crews make their final preparations on his 3M 'Bison-B' tanker, callsign Patriot-1. His aircraft and its twin, Patriot-2, were not armed with bombs or missiles. Their payload was far more precious: thousands of kilograms of jet fuel, the lifeblood for the real spearhead of tonight's mission.
The operation was codenamed "Long Arm," a fitting name for a mission that stretched the capabilities of Soviet Long Range Aviation to their absolute limit. In response to the provocative presence of the USS Kitty Hawk carrier battle group in the Philippine Sea, four Tu-95K 'Bear-C' bombers were tasked with a mock cruise missile strike—a powerful message to Washington. But the 'Bears', for all their legendary range, could not make the journey without drinking from Ivan's tankers. His mission was not to fight, but to enable the fight. He was the fulcrum upon which the entire, massive lever of Soviet power projection rested.
The briefing had been clear, the flight plan a bold line drawn across a vast, empty expanse of the Pacific Ocean. Their destination was a set of coordinates—40.0° N, 148.5° E—a point in space where they would loiter and wait. The constraints were absolute: maintain strict electronic silence, avoid all contact with adversarial aircraft, and return both tankers safely to base. The probability of success was a reassuring 66%, but the 9% chance of failure felt like a chasm waiting to swallow them. A technical malfunction, a navigational error, or an unexpectedly aggressive American patrol could doom not just their two crews, but the entire strategic operation.
"The longest arm in the world is useless without a shoulder to swing it from," his co-pilot, a young but steady lieutenant named Pavel, remarked as they climbed into the cold cockpit. "Tonight, Major, we are the shoulder."
For hours, they flew east, two lumbering giants in perfect formation, swallowed by the immense darkness over the Pacific. The discipline was grueling. No radio chatter, no radar emissions. They were ghosts, navigating by celestial charts and inertial systems, trusting their lives to mathematics and meticulous planning. Below them, the ocean was an unseen, churning void. Ivan knew that somewhere out in that same void, the E-2B Hawkeyes of the Kitty Hawk were methodically scanning the skies. Their mission depended on being a needle in an impossibly large haystack.
As they approached the rendezvous point, the tension in the cockpit was a palpable thing. It was time to break the silence.
"Initiating rendezvous beacon," Ivan announced, his voice calm and measured. His radar operator switched on their homing signal. Now, they were a lighthouse in the dark, visible to anyone who might be listening. They could only pray their intended audience was the first to see the light.
The minutes stretched into an eternity. Ivan’s eyes scanned the radar display, searching for the contacts that had to be there.
"Contacts!" the radar operator finally called out, his voice sharp with relief. "Four bogies, bearing one-niner-zero, correct speed and profile. It's them."
Out of the darkness, the 'Bears' emerged. They were magnificent, terrifying sights, their enormous, contra-rotating propellers beating a deep, resonant rhythm that Ivan could feel even in his own cockpit. The four Tu-95s, the very symbols of Soviet nuclear might, fell into a neat echelon formation, waiting to be fed.
The refueling was a delicate, dangerous ballet. Ivan maneuvered Patriot-1 into position ahead of the lead 'Bear'. The drogue, a basket at the end of a long hose, trailed behind them, buffeted by the turbulent air. The Tu-95 pilot, with incredible skill, nudged the bomber's refueling probe directly into the basket. A green light on Ivan's console confirmed the connection.
"Fuel transfer initiated," Ivan reported. He watched his gauges as thousands of kilograms of fuel poured from his tanks into the bomber's. One by one, the 'Bears' came to them, first to Patriot-1, then to Patriot-2. The process was repeated four times, a flawless execution of training and nerve in the middle of the night, thousands of miles from home.
With its tanks full, the lead 'Bear' pilot gave a crisp salute over the radio. "Thank you, Patriot flight. The arm is now long. We are proceeding to target."
The four bombers peeled away, turning south, their powerful engines carrying them towards their confrontation with the American fleet. Ivan and Pavel watched them go until their navigation lights were indistinguishable from the stars. Their part was done.
The flight back to Ukrainka was long and quiet, the tension replaced by a bone-deep exhaustion and a profound sense of satisfaction. They had not seen an enemy fighter, had not heard a single hostile transmission. They had flown to the edge of the world, performed their critical task with perfect precision, and were returning home, their mission a complete success. They hadn't fired a shot, but as they touched down on the frozen runway in the Amur Oblast, Ivan Morozov knew they had landed a blow that would be felt all the way to the Pentagon.
Comments
Post a Comment