Operation Dingo: Bushfire
Scenario Name: Operation Dingo: Bushfire
Time and Date: November 23, 1977, 11:00:00 (Zulu)
Friendly Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: Rhodesia
Bases of Operation:
Airbase: New Sarum Air Base, Salisbury, Rhodesia (17.9319° S, 31.0931° E)
Order of Battle:
Aircraft:
2x FTB.337G Lynx
Loadout (per aircraft): 2x Twin .303in Browning M/G Pods, 2x 37mm SNEB Rocket Pods 1
Home Base: New Sarum Air Base
2x SA.319B Alouette III [G-Car]
Loadout (per aircraft): 4x .303in Browning M/G 2
Home Base: New Sarum Air Base
Land-Based Assets and Personnel:
1x Rhodesian Light Infantry "Fireforce" Team: On standby at New Sarum, to be deployed by the Alouette III G-Cars.
Adversarial Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: Zimbabwe African National Liberation Army (ZANLA) (Non-State Armed Group)
Bases of Operation:
Mobile Base: Insurgent Staging Camp in the Zambezi Valley.
Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):
Land-Based Assets and Personnel:
ZANLA Insurgent Camp: A collection of soft structures (tents, shacks), trucks, and personnel. (Coordinates: 16.558° S, 29.844° E)
Mobile Units (Soft): Several technicals (light utility vehicles with mounted machine guns). 3
Land Structures (Soft): Tents, supply caches, and command posts. 4
Ground-Based Threats:
2x DShK 12.7mm Heavy Machine Guns: Providing rudimentary anti-air defense for the camp.
1x Strela-2 (SA-7 Grail) MANPADS Team: Suspected to be present in the camp vicinity.
Mission & Objectives:
Geopolitical Situation:
The Rhodesian Bush War is at its peak. ZANLA insurgents, operating from sanctuaries in neighboring Mozambique, have established a significant staging camp in the Zambezi Valley. This camp is being used to train new recruits and funnel fighters and equipment into Rhodesia for attacks on farms and infrastructure. The Rhodesian Security Forces have pinpointed the camp's location and are launching "Operation Dingo," a major preemptive raid. Air power is critical to soften up the target before ground troops are inserted.Friendly Mission:
You are the commander of a "fireforce" air element. Your mission is to conduct an initial strike on the identified ZANLA camp. You will lead the two Lynx attack aircraft to strafe the camp with your .303in Browning machine guns and rockets, targeting personnel, vehicles, and structures. 555 The Alouette III "G-Cars," also armed with .303in Brownings, will follow to suppress any remaining resistance and clear landing zones for the heliborne infantry. Your objective is to inflict maximum chaos and damage, disrupting the camp's command structure before the main ground assault begins.Success Criteria:
Primary Objective: Destroy at least 75% of the soft land structures and mobile units within the ZANLA camp. 6
Secondary Objective: Neutralize the DShK heavy machine gun positions.
Constraint: Do not lose more than one aircraft.
Constraint: Successfully clear a landing zone for the follow-on infantry assault.
Operation Dingo: Bushfire — Probability Assessment
Scenario Overview
Mission: Two FTB.337G Lynx attack aircraft and two SA.319B Alouette III helicopters conduct a pre-assault airstrike on a ZANLA insurgent camp in the Zambezi Valley, aiming to destroy at least 75% of soft targets, neutralize heavy machine gun positions, and clear a landing zone for heliborne infantry, with no more than one aircraft lost.
Adversary: ZANLA camp with soft structures, technicals, two DShK 12.7mm heavy machine guns, and a suspected Strela-2 (SA-7) MANPADS team.
Key Threats and Mission Factors
1. Anti-Air Threats
DShK 12.7mm HMGs: Effective against low-flying, slow aircraft and helicopters, especially during attack runs and landing zone clearance.
Strela-2 (SA-7) MANPADS: Heat-seeking, shoulder-fired missile; a significant threat to helicopters and slow-moving aircraft, particularly during low-altitude operations and hover.
2. Attack Effectiveness
Lynx Aircraft: Equipped with .303in machine guns and 37mm SNEB rockets, highly effective against soft targets and technicals in open camp settings.
Alouette III G-Cars: .303in machine guns provide suppressive fire, but are less effective against entrenched or well-camouflaged positions.
3. Survivability
Aircraft Losses: The mission allows for the loss of one aircraft; exceeding this threshold constitutes failure.
Tactics: Surprise, speed, and coordinated attack runs increase survivability and effectiveness, but repeated passes or slow approaches (especially by helicopters) increase exposure to ground fire and MANPADS.
4. Landing Zone Clearance
Suppression of Resistance: Clearing a safe LZ depends on neutralizing DShK positions and suppressing any remaining hostile fire.
Probability Breakdown
Combined Full Mission Success
Probability of achieving all objectives (primary, secondary, constraints):
0.70×0.65×0.80×0.75≈0.270.70 \times 0.65 \times 0.80 \times 0.75 \approx 0.270.70×0.65×0.80×0.75≈0.27 (~27%)
Partial Success
Probability of destroying ≥75% of targets and clearing the LZ, but with higher losses or one DShK surviving:
~40%
Failure
Probability of failing to destroy enough targets, losing more than one aircraft, or failing to clear the LZ:
~33%
Summary Table
Key Points
Most likely outcome: The air element achieves significant destruction and suppresses resistance, but may suffer an aircraft loss or leave one DShK position operational, resulting in partial success.
Greatest risks: The Strela-2 MANPADS and DShK HMGs, especially during low, slow helicopter operations and repeated attack runs.
Best practices for success:
Maximize surprise and speed in the initial strike.
Prioritize DShK and suspected MANPADS positions early.
Limit exposure by minimizing time spent at low altitude and over the target area.
In summary:
Odds of full mission success: ~27%
Odds of partial success: ~40%
Odds of failure: ~33%
Operation Dingo: Bushfire is a high-risk, high-payoff air assault, with the main threats being concentrated ground fire and the challenge of achieving overwhelming destruction in a single, rapid strike.
The blistering heat of the Rhodesian morning was already shimmering off the tarmac at New Sarum Air Base. Flight Lieutenant Mark "Viper" Davies watched as the Rhodesian Light Infantry "Fireforce" team, lean and hard as teak, loaded onto the Alouette III helicopters. Their lives, he knew, depended entirely on what he and his wingman would do in the next hour. It was November 23, 1977, and Operation Dingo was about to begin.
Mark settled into the cockpit of his FTB.337G Lynx, a strange-looking but brutally effective counter-insurgency aircraft. Slung under its wings were twin .303 Browning machine gun pods and pods of 37mm SNEB rockets. His mission was to be the tip of the spear. Intelligence had pinpointed a major ZANLA staging camp deep in the Zambezi Valley, a haven for insurgents flooding across the border. He and his wingman were to hit the camp first, a whirlwind of machine-gun fire and rockets, to shatter their command and control before the heliborne infantry, the "troopies," even hit the ground.
The briefing had been stark. The camp was defended by at least two DShK 12.7mm heavy machine guns and, most worryingly, a suspected Strela-2 (SA-7) heat-seeking missile team. The analysts gave them a 27% chance of a perfect mission. The most likely outcome was "partial success," a clinical term that meant achieving the objective but likely taking damage or even losing an aircraft.
"Viper flight, check in," Mark's voice was a calm, steady presence over the radio.
"Viper Two, green," his wingman replied.
"K-Car, we are green," came the call from the lead Alouette, the command helicopter for the infantry insertion.
"Alright, lads," Mark said. "Let's go make a mess."
They flew north at treetop height, the vast, sun-bleached expanse of the Rhodesian bush flashing by beneath them. The two Lynx aircraft led the way, their push-pull engine configuration a distinctive drone, followed by the two Alouette III "G-Cars" carrying the infantry.
After an hour of tense, low-level flying, they were approaching the target coordinates. "Viper flight, pop-up for target acquisition," Mark ordered.
The two Lynx pilots nudged their sticks, and the aircraft climbed just enough to crest the ridgeline. Below them, nestled in a bend of a dry riverbed, was the ZANLA camp. It was a sprawling collection of tents, bashas, and several trucks, just as intelligence had described. Figures were moving between the tents, completely unaware of the storm about to break over their heads.
"Tally ho! I have the targets," Mark radioed. "DShK position identified on the northern perimeter. I'm taking that one. Viper Two, you have the southern side. Engage, engage, engage!"
Mark rolled his Lynx onto its side and dove, the ground rushing up to meet him. He lined up the DShK emplacement, a crude sandbagged pit, in his gunsight. He squeezed the trigger. The aircraft shuddered as the four .303 Brownings in the wing pods roared to life, pouring a torrent of lead into the target. He saw figures scatter as his tracers ripped the position apart. With a flick of his thumb, he unleashed a volley of SNEB rockets that turned the entire emplacement into a cloud of smoke and flying debris.
His wingman was doing the same on the other side of the camp. The element of surprise was total. Chaos erupted below as insurgents ran for cover. Mark pulled up, jinking hard, and came around for a second pass, this time targeting the supply trucks. His rockets hit one dead center, and it erupted in a satisfying fireball.
That’s when the enemy began to fight back. Red tracers from the second DShK, the one his wingman had targeted, reached up towards them.
"Viper Two, you've still got an active gun down there!" Mark yelled.
"I'm on it, Lead!" his wingman replied, rolling in for another attack run.
As the Lynx aircraft crisscrossed the camp, turning it into a charnel house, the Alouettes moved in. The "G-Cars," with their gunners firing their own Brownings from the open doorways, began circling the perimeter, suppressing any pockets of resistance and searching for a suitable landing zone.
"K-Car to Viper Lead," the troop commander's voice crackled. "The southern DShK is still active! We can't put the boys down until it's neutralized!"
"Roger that," Mark acknowledged. He saw his wingman's Lynx take a series of hits, trailing smoke, but still flying. "Viper Two, you hit?"
"Affirmative, just some scratches! I'm going back in!"
As his wingman dove on the stubborn machine gun pit, Mark scanned the edges of the camp, his eyes searching for the tell-tale puff of smoke that would signal an SA-7 launch. The fear of that heat-seeking missile was a cold knot in his stomach.
His wingman's rockets finally found their mark, silencing the last DShK in a cloud of dust.
"LZ is cold... well, colder," the K-Car commander reported. "We're going in."
Mark watched as the two Alouettes flared for landing, the RLI troopers leaping out before the skids even touched the ground, fanning out and immediately engaging the dazed survivors. The first phase was over. They had destroyed well over 75% of the camp, neutralized the heavy guns, and delivered the Fireforce. They had taken damage but lost no aircraft. It was a textbook partial success, a bloody and chaotic victory won in the heart of the bush. As he pulled his Lynx into a high orbit to provide air support, Mark knew the fight was far from over, but the back of the enemy had been broken. The Bushfire had been lit.
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