Operation Fehmarn Picket
Scenario Name: Operation Fehmarn Picket
Time and Date: July 18, 1982, 02:00:00 (Zulu)
Friendly Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany)
Bases of Operation:
Naval Base: Olpenitz Naval Base, West Germany (54.6611° N, 10.0278° E)
Order of Battle:
Naval Assets:
2x P 6111 Albatros [Type 143] Fast Attack Craft
Vessels: S62 Falke (P6112), S63 Geier (P6113)
Loadout (per vessel): 4x MM38 Exocet Anti-Ship Missiles, 1x 76mm OTO Melara Compact cannon, 1x 76mm OTO Melara Compact cannon (aft), 2x 533mm Torpedo Tubes (for Seal wire-guided torpedoes). Equipped with the 3RM-20 surface search radar. 1
Home Base: Olpenitz Naval Base
Adversarial Forces:
Primary Country/Coalition: German Democratic Republic (East Germany)
Bases of Operation:
Naval Base: Peenemünde Naval Base, East Germany (54.1458° N, 13.7744° E)
Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):
Naval Assets:
3x Tarantul I-class Corvettes (Project 1241): A squadron conducting aggressive patrols towards the maritime border. (Approximate starting location: 54.5° N, 12.0° E)
Aircraft:
MiG-23BN 'Flogger-H': A flight from a nearby airbase like Laage (53.9189° N, 12.2806° E) is on standby for maritime strike operations.
Mission & Objectives:
Geopolitical Situation:
Tensions in the Baltic Sea are high as both NATO and Warsaw Pact forces conduct numerous exercises. The East German Volksmarine has become increasingly bold, pushing its patrols closer to the demarcation line. Intelligence indicates a full squadron of heavily armed Tarantul-class corvettes has sortied from Peenemünde and is steaming west towards the Fehmarn Belt, a critical strait connecting the Baltic to the West. This is seen as a deliberate provocation to test the readiness and rules of engagement of the West German Bundesmarine.Friendly Mission:
You command a two-ship patrol of Albatros-class fast attack craft (FAC). Your mission is to establish a picket line east of the Fehmarn Belt. Using your 3RM-20 surface search radar, you must make first contact with the approaching East German squadron. Your task is to intercept and shadow the Tarantuls, preventing them from entering West German territorial waters while asserting NATO's freedom of navigation. This is a tense game of cat and mouse where superior tactics and positioning are key.Success Criteria:
Primary Objective: Detect the Tarantul squadron using your 3RM-20 radar and maintain a constant track.
Secondary Objective: Prevent any East German vessel from crossing the demarcation line into West German territorial waters.
Constraint: Do not initiate hostilities. You are authorized to use force only if fired upon. The primary weapon is maneuver and presence.
Constraint: Successfully achieve and hold a firing solution on all three enemy vessels with your MM38 Exocet missiles to demonstrate capability.
Operation Fehmarn Picket: Probability Assessment
Scenario Overview
Mission: Two West German Albatros-class fast attack craft (S62 Falke, S63 Geier) must detect, shadow, and deter a squadron of three East German Tarantul I-class corvettes from entering West German territorial waters, without initiating hostilities, while demonstrating a firing solution with MM38 Exocet missiles.
Adversary: Three Tarantul I-class corvettes, with MiG-23BN maritime strike aircraft on standby.
Key Factors Affecting Mission Outcome
1. Detection and Tracking
The 3RM-20 surface search radar on the Albatros-class FACs is well-suited for detecting surface contacts in the confined waters of the Baltic.
The Tarantul corvettes are large, radar-reflective targets, making initial detection likely at 15–20+ nautical miles, barring severe weather or electronic countermeasures.
Probability of detecting and maintaining track on the Tarantul squadron: ~90%
2. Maintaining the Picket and Preventing Incursion
The Albatros FACs are fast and highly maneuverable, allowing them to position themselves between the Tarantuls and the demarcation line.
The presence of two FACs is sufficient to establish a visible and credible picket, but the Tarantuls may attempt to probe or feint toward the border.
Probability of preventing any Tarantul from crossing into West German waters (without escalation): ~80%
3. Achieving and Holding a Firing Solution
The MM38 Exocet has a range of ~42 km, and the FACs’ fire control systems are capable of tracking and locking onto multiple targets.
Achieving and holding a firing solution is feasible as long as the FACs maintain radar contact and are not jammed or forced to maneuver defensively.
Probability of achieving and holding a firing solution on all three Tarantuls: ~85%
4. Risk of Escalation or Adversary Air Threat
The rules of engagement prohibit initiating hostilities; the main risk is if the Tarantuls or MiG-23BNs open fire, which would escalate the situation and potentially result in losses.
The MiG-23BNs are a latent threat but are unlikely to be committed unless the situation escalates.
Probability of avoiding hostile engagement/escalation: ~90%
Probability Table
Combined Full Mission Success
Probability of achieving all objectives (detection, deterrence, firing solution, no escalation):
0.90×0.80×0.85×0.90≈0.550.90 \times 0.80 \times 0.85 \times 0.90 \approx 0.550.90×0.80×0.85×0.90≈0.55 (~55%)
Partial Success
Probability of achieving primary objectives but with a minor lapse (e.g., brief loss of track or a Tarantul briefly crosses the line): ~35%
Failure
Probability of failure (loss of track, incursion, or escalation): ~10%
Summary Table
Key Points
Most likely outcome: The West German FACs detect and track the Tarantul squadron, maintain a credible picket, and demonstrate a firing solution, successfully deterring incursion without escalation.
Risks: The main risks are aggressive maneuvering by the Tarantuls, electronic countermeasures, or a miscalculation leading to escalation.
Best practices for success:
Maintain disciplined radar and maneuvering to ensure continuous track.
Use clear signaling and positioning to deter incursion.
Avoid provocative actions and adhere strictly to rules of engagement.
In summary:
Odds of full mission success: ~55%
Odds of partial success: ~35%
Odds of failure: ~10%
Operation Fehmarn Picket is a moderate-risk, high-confidence deterrence and surveillance mission, with the greatest challenges being tactical positioning and the avoidance of unintended escalation.
The Baltic Sea was a sheet of cold, dark glass under a sliver of a moon. On the bridge of the S62 Falke, Korvettenkapitän Klaus Richter stared into the green-hued world of the 3RM-20 surface search radar, its slow, methodical sweep a stark contrast to the frantic pounding of his own heart. It was 02:00 Zulu on July 18, 1982, and he and his consort, the S63 Geier, were the razor's edge of the Bundesmarine, a picket line drawn in the water east of the Fehmarn Belt.
The mission, Operation Fehmarn Picket, was a high-stakes game of chicken. Intelligence had been firm: three East German Tarantul I-class corvettes had sortied from Peenemünde, steaming west with aggressive intent. They were heavily armed, fast, and their presence this close to the maritime demarcation line was a deliberate, calculated provocation. Klaus's orders were simple in their wording and terrifying in their implication: intercept, shadow, and prevent them from crossing into West German waters. Do not fire unless fired upon.
The two Albatros-class fast attack craft were perfectly suited for this deadly dance. They were small, agile, and packed a disproportionate punch with their four MM38 Exocet missiles and twin 76mm OTO Melara cannons. But they were just two boats against three, with the latent threat of land-based MiG-23s on standby. The mission analysis gave them a 55% chance of full success. A coin toss, with the fate of the Baltic as the stakes.
"Anything, Rolf?" Klaus asked his radar operator, his voice a low murmur in the quiet bridge.
"Nothing but fishing boats and the usual merchant traffic, Herr Kapitän," the operator replied. "The sea is quiet."
"Too quiet," Klaus muttered. He could feel the tension coiled in the small space. Every man on board knew what was coming. They were a tripwire, and somewhere in the darkness, the boot was about to fall.
An hour later, it did.
"Contacts! Three contacts, bearing zero-niner-five!" Rolf's voice was sharp, professional, cutting through the monotony. "Fast movers, tight formation. Speed twenty-five knots. It's them."
Klaus felt a surge of adrenaline. "Sound action stations. Bring us to heading two-seven-zero. I want to meet them head-on. Geier is to take station one thousand meters to our port."
The Falke heeled over, its powerful engines digging into the sea, a plume of white water churning in its wake. On the tactical display, three red icons representing the Tarantuls crept steadily west. Klaus watched them, his mind a flurry of calculations. He had to position his two small craft perfectly to block any potential path to the demarcation line. It was a chess match played at thirty knots.
The two squadrons closed the distance, two sets of predators meeting in the dark. The East German vessels were larger, more imposing, but the Albatros-class boats were like wolves, nimble and lethal.
"They are holding their course, Herr Kapitän," the executive officer reported, his binoculars pressed to his eyes. "They know we're here."
"Good," Klaus said. "Let them see us. Let them know the line is drawn."
The primary objective was complete. They had a firm track on the enemy. Now came the delicate part: deterrence.
"Weapons control, I want a firing solution on all three targets," Klaus ordered. "Lock them up with the Exocets. I want their radar warning receivers to scream."
On the weapons console, the operator's hands moved with practiced speed. A series of tones confirmed the locks. Three green circles now surrounded the red icons of the Tarantuls. They were, for all intents and purposes, dead. If this were a real war, three anti-ship missiles would be streaking towards them.
The effect was instantaneous. The lead Tarantul, as if physically struck, altered course, turning slightly to the north. The other two followed suit. They were testing the line, probing for weakness, but the unwavering missile locks from the two German boats were a clear and unmistakable message: Thus far, and no further.
For what felt like an eternity, the two squadrons sailed on parallel courses, a few thousand meters of cold Baltic water separating them. It was a silent, brutal conversation spoken in the language of radar waves and missile guidance systems. Klaus could feel the sweat trickling down his back. A single miscalculation, a single itchy trigger finger on either side, could turn this tense standoff into a full-blown naval battle.
Finally, after a long, agonizing ten minutes, the lead Tarantul broke the stalemate. It made a wide, sweeping turn to the east, followed by its consorts. They were retreating, heading back towards their home base.
A collective sigh of relief went through the bridge of the Falke. Klaus watched the red icons on his screen grow smaller, their threat receding with every nautical mile. He had held the line. He had not fired a shot, but he had won the engagement. The Fehmarn Picket had held. As the sun began to cast its first pale light over the horizon, Klaus allowed himself a thin, tired smile. The night had been long, but the waters were once again quiet.
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