Operation Fulcrum of Fury

Scenario Name: Operation Fulcrum of Fury

Time and Date: October 25, 1973, 05:00:00 (Zulu)

Friendly Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Soviet Union
Bases of Operation:

Airbase: Mozdok Air Base, North Ossetian ASSR, Soviet Union (43.7836° N, 44.5883° E)

Order of Battle:

Aircraft:

2x 3M 'Bison-B' Strategic Bombers

Loadout (per aircraft): 2x TN-9000 Tactical Nuclear Bomb 1
Home Base: Mozdok Air Base

Adversarial Forces:

Primary Country/Coalition: Israel
Bases of Operation:

Airbase: Ramat David Airbase, Israel (32.6567° N, 35.1856° E)
Airbase: Hatzerim Airbase, Israel (31.2367° N, 34.6569° E)
Military Installation: Israeli nuclear processing and storage facility, near Dimona (31.0000° N, 35.1000° E)

Order of Battle (Known and Suspected):

Ground-Based Threats:

Integrated Air Defense Systems (IADS):

MIM-23 Hawk SAM batteries: A layered defense network is expected around the Dimona facility. (Estimated locations: 31.05° N, 35.15° E and 30.95° N, 35.05° E)

Early Warning Radars:

AN/TPS-43: Providing long-range surveillance over the Sinai and Negev deserts.

Aircraft:

F-4E Phantom II: Multiple squadrons are on high alert at Ramat David and Hatzerim, responsible for national air defense.
IAI Nesher: Squadrons are operational and will be scrambled to intercept any intruding aircraft.

Mission & Objectives:

Geopolitical Situation:
The Yom Kippur War has reached a fever pitch. Egyptian and Syrian forces, initially successful, have been pushed back by a massive Israeli counter-offensive, aided by a large-scale US arms airlift. Intelligence reports reaching the Kremlin indicate that in a moment of desperation, Israel has armed several of its Jericho missiles with nuclear warheads and is preparing to use them against Cairo and Damascus if the tide of war turns against them again. This "Masada Option" is viewed by the Soviet Politburo as an existential threat to its regional allies and a catastrophic escalation that cannot be allowed. With the Soviet Navy's Mediterranean Squadron (5th Eskadra) shadowing the US Sixth Fleet, a direct order has been issued from Moscow for a limited, deniable nuclear strike. The objective is to neutralize Israel's nuclear capability at its source, forcing an immediate cessation of hostilities under the threat of total annihilation.
Friendly Mission:
You are to command a two-ship flight of 3M 'Bison-B' bombers on a high-stakes, one-way mission. Your flight profile is a Hi-Hi-Hi strike with a radius of 3150 nm, cruising at 36,000 ft. 2 Your sole targets are the primary reactor and weapons processing facilities at the Dimona nuclear site. You are authorized to use TN-9000 tactical nuclear bombs to ensure the complete destruction of the targets. This is a decapitation strike against Israel's strategic deterrent, and you are to expect a fanatical level of resistance. Return to base is secondary to the successful execution of the primary objective.
Success Criteria:

Primary Objective: Destroy the primary reactor building at the Dimona complex (Coordinates: 31.0000° N, 35.1000° E).
Secondary Objective: Destroy the adjacent weapons-grade material processing facility (Coordinates: 31.0015° N, 35.1025° E).
Constraint: The use of nuclear weapons is authorized only on the designated primary and secondary targets.
Constraint: Mission success is defined by the destruction of the targets, regardless of whether your aircraft survive the mission.

Operation Fulcrum of Fury: Probability Assessment

Scenario Overview

Mission: Two Soviet 3M 'Bison-B' bombers conduct a high-altitude, one-way nuclear strike against the Dimona nuclear complex in Israel, aiming to destroy the primary reactor and weapons processing facility.
Adversary: Dense Israeli IADS (MIM-23 Hawk SAMs, AN/TPS-43 radar), multiple F-4E Phantom II and IAI Nesher squadrons on high alert.

Key Threats and Mission Factors

1. Early Detection and Interception

AN/TPS-43 radar provides long-range surveillance, ensuring the bombers are detected well before reaching Israeli airspace.
F-4E Phantom II and IAI Nesher squadrons are highly capable, with rapid scramble and climb rates, and are expected to intercept any detected threat.
Probability of detection and intercept attempt: Extremely high (≈98%)1 2.

2. SAM Threat: MIM-23 Hawk

MIM-23 Hawk batteries form a layered defense around Dimona, with a single-shot kill probability of ~0.56 for the original system3 4.
Multiple batteries can engage simultaneously, increasing cumulative kill probability.
Probability of at least one bomber being hit by SAMs: High (≈60–70% for a two-bomber formation)3 45.

3. Bomber Survivability

Bison-B bombers are large, non-stealthy, and lack effective countermeasures against modern (for 1973) SAMs and interceptors.
Defensive guns are ineffective against supersonic, missile-armed fighters.
Probability at least one bomber reaches the target area: Low (≈25–30%)1 2.

4. Weapon Delivery and Target Destruction

TN-9000 tactical nuclear bombs: If a bomber reaches the release point, the probability of destroying both the reactor and processing facility is very high (≈95%), due to the area effect and overkill of the weapon6.
Mission success is defined by target destruction, not bomber survival.

Probability Table

Mission Phase / Objective	Probability (%)
Penetrate to target area with at least one bomber	25–30
Destroy both Dimona targets (if bomb released)	95
Both bombers lost before release	70–75

Combined Full Mission Success

Probability of achieving mission success (destruction of both targets):

0.30×0.95=0.2850.30 \times 0.95 = 0.2850.30×0.95=0.285 (~29%)

Failure

Probability of failure (both bombers lost before weapon release):

~71%

Summary Table

Outcome Description	Probability (%)
Full Success (both targets destroyed)	29
Failure (both bombers lost before release)	71

Key Points

Most likely outcome: The bomber force is detected early, faces rapid interception and heavy SAM engagement, and is likely to suffer losses before reaching the target. However, if even one bomber reaches the release point, the destruction of both Dimona targets is almost certain.
Greatest risks: Early detection, effective MIM-23 Hawk engagement, and aggressive Israeli fighter interception.
Best practices for success:

Maximize speed and altitude to reduce exposure time.
Coordinate approach to saturate defenses and increase the chance of at least one bomber reaching the target.

In summary:

Odds of full mission success (target destruction): ~29%
Odds of failure (no bombers reach release point): ~71%

Operation Fulcrum of Fury is a high-risk, high-impact mission, with the main threats being Israel’s robust air defense network and rapid fighter response. If a bomber survives to the target, the mission’s destructive objective is almost guaranteed3 4 1 2.

The air at Mozdok Air Base was colder than the North Ossetian autumn had any right to be, a cold that seeped through flight suits and settled deep in the bone. It was 05:00 Zulu, October 25, 1973. Colonel Andrei Volkov stood on the hardstand, the colossal, swept-wing form of his 3M 'Bison-B' bomber, callsign Molniya-1, silhouetted against the pre-dawn gloom. In its belly rested a single TN-9000 tactical nuclear bomb. It was not a weapon of war; it was a weapon to end a war, and likely, his world with it.

The mission was codenamed "Fulcrum of Fury," a name that barely captured the insanity of their task. The Yom Kippur War, a conventional conflict of tanks and jets, was about to go nuclear. Israeli forces, resupplied by a massive American airlift, had turned the tide against the Egyptians and Syrians. Now, Kremlin intelligence reported the unthinkable: Israel, in desperation, had armed its Jericho missiles. The "Masada Option" was on the table. Cairo and Damascus were targeted for nuclear annihilation.

The Politburo's response was equally unthinkable, a move of terrifying logic. A decapitation strike. Volkov and his wingman in Molniya-2 were to fly a one-way, high-altitude mission and erase Israel's nuclear capability at Dimona. The briefing had been short, the words clipped and final. The probability of an Israeli intercept was 98%. The probability of being shot down by their layered MIM-23 Hawk missile defenses was nearly as high. The probability of either bomber returning was zero. But if a single bomb got through, the probability of destroying the Dimona reactor was 95%. The final constraint laid the mission bare: Mission success is defined by the destruction of the targets, regardless of whether your aircraft survive.

"The fate of millions rests on the shoulders of ten men," his co-pilot, Major Sergei Orlov, murmured as they climbed into the cockpit. "May God have mercy on us all."

"There is no God on this flight, Sergei," Volkov replied, his voice flat. "Only the mission."

They ascended into the stratosphere, leveling off at 36,000 feet. For hours, they were two silver ghosts sailing over Turkey and the dark expanse of the Mediterranean. The silence was absolute, a crushing weight of anticipation. They were the fulcrum, the single point upon which the fate of the Middle East—and perhaps the world—was about to turn.

The first sign of the hornet's nest came as a calm, professional voice from the electronic warfare officer. "Contact. AN/TPS-43. The Israelis see us."

Almost instantly, the sky ahead and below began to fill with the contrails of climbing interceptors. The Israeli Air Force, the most battle-hardened in the world, was rising to meet them with a ferocity Volkov had only read about in intelligence reports. F-4E Phantoms and the distinct, delta-winged shape of IAI Neshers swarmed towards them.

"They are not waiting," Sergei breathed.

The Israeli pilots were relentless. They bypassed the bombers' defensive guns, launching air-to-air missiles from standoff range. The sky became a lethal lattice of smoke trails and explosions. Molniya-1 shuddered as a near-miss rocked the airframe, alarms screaming through the cockpit.

Then came the call from their wingman. "SAM launch! Multiple Hawks! They're bracketing us!"

Volkov watched in detached horror as three missiles, fired from the ground defenses around Dimona, converged on Molniya-2. The bomber, a giant of metal and fuel, simply vanished in a brilliant, silent flash—a new, terrible star in the morning sky. The probability assessment had been brutally accurate.

They were alone. The Israeli fighters, like wolves sensing a kill, closed in on Volkov's damaged bomber. The port engines were sputtering, the fuselage riddled with shrapnel.

"Ignore them!" Volkov commanded, his eyes locked on the target coordinates. "Arm the weapon."

Through the cracked cockpit window, he could see it: the Negev desert, and in its heart, the dull, concrete dome of the Dimona reactor. It was an ugly, unassuming building that held the power to incinerate cities.

"Weapon is armed," Sergei confirmed, his voice strained. "On your mark, Colonel."

Volkov fought the dying aircraft, holding it on a steady course for the final run. An F-4 Phantom flashed past his canopy, its pilot's helmeted face a fleeting image of his own mortality. He pushed the thought aside. His life was irrelevant. Return was secondary.

"Bombs away."

The Bison lurched upwards as it released the TN-9000. The bomb fell away, a single, dark teardrop against the desert dawn. Volkov didn't bank. He didn't try to escape. He held the nose of his bomber steady, flying directly towards the target he had just condemned. He and his crew would be the first witnesses to the fire they had unleashed.

He saw a blinding, impossible light that consumed the horizon, a light that was not of this earth. He felt a wave of heat, a physical blow that buckled the aircraft's frame. And then, there was only white.

The world would never know about Operation Fulcrum of Fury. They would only know that on October 25, 1973, at the height of the Yom Kippur War, a mysterious seismic event was recorded in the Negev desert, and that shortly thereafter, all parties miraculously agreed to a ceasefire. The Masada Option was never triggered. The world had stepped back from the abyss, pulled back by the sacrifice of ten men in two bombers, their existence erased by the very fury they had been sent to unleash.

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